California's Legislative Analyst's Office and the Value of Independence

Nov 15, 2024 - But since macroeconomic dynamics are multifaceted and context dependent, successfully predicting the scenario that will play out is virtually impossible. Consider as evidence that in just the last several years —during and after the COVID-19 pandemic —consensus macroeconomic forecasts have been wildly off from actual outcomes.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4938

Despite Fiscal Forecasting Uncertainties, Multiyear Budget Planning Essential

May 27, 2021 - The value of doing multiyear budget estimates is evident when considering the role they can play in budget development. When developing our main forecasts, both our office and DOF make their best estimate, aiming for the median scenario.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4443

Why Aren't Revenue Estimates More Accurate? [Publication Details]

Nov 1, 1984 - Format: PDF Description: Revenue estimates play a crucial role in the state's budget process. The Legislature relies heavily on these estimates in deciding at what levels to fund state programs, how much money should be 11 put aside in reserves, and whether taxes should be raised or lowered.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Detail/3146

Why Aren't Revenue Esitmates More Accurate? [Publication Details]

Nov 1, 1984 - Format: PDF Description: Revenue estimates play a crucial role in the state's budget process. The Legislature relies heavily on these estimates in deciding at what levels to fund state programs, how much money should be "put aside" in reserves, and whether taxes should be raised or lowered.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Detail/3099

The 2022-23 Budget: Initial Comments on the Governor's May Revision

May 16, 2022 - For some exclusions, like federal and court mandates, legislative decisions play a limited role in increasing or decreasing the excluded spending. But for other exclusions, like subventions to local governments and spending on capital outlay projects, the Legislature has much more discretion.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4598

The 2018-19 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 15, 2017 - Given our estimates of the General Fund condition in 2018 ‑19, one or more of these triggers could come into play. The state ’s room under its spending limit has decreased significantly in recent years.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3718

The State Appropriations Limit

Apr 21, 2021 - For some exclusions, like federal and court mandates, legislative decisions play little role in increasing or decreasing the excluded spending. But for two exclusions, subventions to local governments and spending on capital outlay projects, the Legislature can exercise some discretion.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4416