The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - This  is not a prediction of what will happen —state and federal laws and policies will change in the coming years —but rather serves as a baseline to help the Legislature understand its starting place.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? [EconTax Blog]

Mar 9, 2026 - This dynamic may be especially notable today. The current run-up in stock prices is similarly concentrated in Silicon Valley technology companies, raising the risk of an outsized revenue loss if that market corrects sharply.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/852

How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? [EconTax Blog]

Mar 9, 2026 - This dynamic may be especially notable today. The current run-up in stock prices is similarly concentrated in Silicon Valley technology companies, raising the risk of an outsized revenue loss if that market corrects sharply.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/article/Detail/852

Online sports wagering. [Ballot]

Oct 20, 2021 - Creates Division of Online Sports Betting Control (DOSBC). This measure creates DOSBC within DOJ, which would have the exclusive authority to regulate online sports wagering as well as to investigate illegal wagering activities (such as “match-fixing ”).
https://lao.ca.gov/BallotAnalysis/Initiative/2021-017

^[PDF] Proposition 27: Allows Online and Mobile Sports Wagering Outside Tribal Lands. Initiative Constitutional Amendment and Statute.

The increase would depend mostly on how sports betting is regulated—such as the number of sports betting licenses approved, the type and number of betting options and events offered, and how much state enforcement is done.
https://lao.ca.gov/handouts/crimjust/2022/Prop-27-081022.pdf

The 2021-22 Budget: School Mental Health

Feb 12, 2021 - As a result, existing partnerships are better positioned to apply for the matching funds. Number of Projects Likely to Receive Matching Funds Is Uncertain. Because the proposal requires CDE to match eligible projects dollar for dollar, a handful of large counties with high ‑cost projects could receive the matching grants and entirely exhaust all available funding.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4368

^[PDF] Online sports wagering.

Creates Division of Online Sports Betting Control (DOSBC). This measure creates DOSBC within DOJ, which would have the exclusive authority to regulate online sports wagering as well as to investigate illegal wagering activities (such as “match-fixing”).
https://lao.ca.gov/ballot/2021/210494.pdf

^[PDF] Proposition 26: Allows In-Person Roulette, Dice Games, Sports Wagering on Tribal Lands. Initiative Constitutional Amendment and Statute.

Increased State Regulatory Costs „ Increased state costs for state agencies (such as DOJ) to regulate in-person sports betting, possibly reaching the low tens of millions of dollars annually. These costs would depend mostly on how sports betting is regulated, such as what types of bets are not allowed. „ Some or all of these costs would be offset by CSWF revenues and tribal payments to the state that do not go into the CSWF.
https://lao.ca.gov/handouts/crimjust/2022/Proposition-26-081022.pdf

Personal income tax rates for high-income taxpayers. [Ballot]

Oct 20, 2025 - The amount of money brought in by this measure is hard to predict and will go up and down with the economy. This is because much of the revenue comes from taxing investment income and capital gains. These types of income are closely tied to the stock market and therefore go up and down a lot from year to year.
https://lao.ca.gov/BallotAnalysis/Initiative/2025-016

The 2022-23 Budget: May Revenue Outlook [EconTax Blog]

May 16, 2022 - As the figure below shows, following the six prior episodes with similar economic conditions to today, state revenues posted below average growth. Our May revenue outlook reflects the risk of lack luster revenue growth suggested by this historical experience.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/735