How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? [EconTax Blog]

Mar 9, 2026 - The three minor downturns  (1981, 1987, and 1990) led to income tax declines of less less than 10 percent (average of 5 percent), with revenues recovering quickly. The four major downturns were more severe, with income tax declines ranging from 17 percent to 30 percent (average of 24 percent).
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/852

How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? [EconTax Blog]

Mar 9, 2026 - The three minor downturns  (1981, 1987, and 1990) led to income tax declines of less less than 10 percent (average of 5 percent), with revenues recovering quickly. The four major downturns were more severe, with income tax declines ranging from 17 percent to 30 percent (average of 24 percent).
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/article/Detail/852

How High? Adjusting California’s Cannabis Taxes

Dec 17, 2019 - Miller, Keaton and Boyoung Seo (2019). “Tax Revenues When Substances Substitute: Marijuana, Alcohol, and Tobacco. ” Mimeo, University of Oregon. National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (2017).
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4125

Summary of LAO Findings and Recommendations on the 2012-13 Budget

Essentially, to avoid “double counting ” the Facebook income, this means that both of our revenue estimates consider the economy without Facebook and then add PIT revenues on top of those estimates to account for the IPO.
https://lao.ca.gov/laoapp/budgetlist/PublicSearch.aspx?PolicyAreaNum=70&KeyCol=596&Yr=2012

Frequently asked questions concerning Facebook and California's General Fund

Aug 1, 2012 - Frequently asked questions concerning Facebook and California's General Fund Frequently asked questions concerning Facebook and California's General Fund Program: Revenues Finding or Recommendation: This item lists answers to frequently asked questions concerning Facebook's stock and California's General Fund budget for 2012-13.
https://lao.ca.gov/Recommendations/Details/618

LAO commentary on Facebook IPO and state revenue forecasts

May 15, 2012 - State tax revenue estimates regarding Facebook, therefore, require numerous assumptions. Because of these factors, there is a large margin of error surrounding both our Facebook revenue estimates and those of the administration.
https://lao.ca.gov/Recommendations/Details/596

Background information on LAO's May 2012 economic and revenue forecasts

May 18, 2012 - Figure 5 compares the LAO May 2012 sales and use tax forecasts for 2011-12 and 2012-13 with other recent forecasts. Figure 6 compares the LAO May 2012 revenue estimate related to the Facebook IPO with those in other recent forecasts.
https://lao.ca.gov/Recommendations/Details/599

Overview of New Updates to the Cap-and-Invest Program

Dec 9, 2025 - This is important because whether CARB could have continued the program beyond 2030 absent explicit statutory authority —under the broad powers it has been granted by the Legislature —had been subject to some legal uncertainty.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5097

The 2020-21 Budget: Staffing to Address New Independent Contractor Test

Feb 11, 2020 - Analysis Predicting AB  5 Workload Difficult at This Early Stage . . . As we noted earlier, at this time we cannot predict how many contractors will be reclassified and hired as employees due to AB  5.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4151

The 2015-16 Budget: Health Benefits for Retired State Employees - Health Benefits for Retired State Employees: Recommendations [Video]

View on YouTube . To view this video please enable JavaScript, and consider upgrading to a web browser that supports HTML5 video Health Benefits for Retired State Employees: Recommendations March 16, 2015
https://lao.ca.gov/Videos/Player?playlistId=21&videoId=141