California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - The added risk variable weighs on the range of revenue outcomes that we view as most plausible. The middle of the range, which becomes our main revenue forecast, is thus lower than if we did not include the stock market risk indicator.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

The 2026-27 Budget: How to Use One-Time Revenue Improvements

Feb 20, 2026 - Any additional resources that materialize at that time should be viewed as a one-time windfall. Despite Revenue Strength, Budget Relies on Reserves and Borrowing. This revenue upgrade comes in addition to already strong revenue growth forecasted in the Governor ’s budget.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5133

The 2026-27 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 12, 2026 - We view this as roughly balanced —that is, neither a clear surplus nor a clear deficit. That said, it is notable that the budget is in a neutral position even though the administration ’s revenue estimate reflects growth and is up significantly relative to the budget act.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5101