California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - The added risk variable weighs on the range of revenue outcomes that we view as most plausible. The middle of the range, which becomes our main revenue forecast, is thus lower than if we did not include the stock market risk indicator.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

The 2026-27 Budget: How to Use One-Time Revenue Improvements

Feb 20, 2026 - The 2026-27 Budget: How to Use One-Time Revenue Improvements The 2026-27 Budget How to Use One-Time Revenue Improvements Recent stock market performance continues to boost income tax collections. In our Fiscal Outlook , we strongly advised the Legislature to treat near-term strength in tax collections as temporary because we expect these gains to reverse.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5133

The 2026-27 Budget: How to Use One-Time Revenue Improvements [Publication Details]

Feb 20, 2026 - Recent stock market performance continues to boost income tax collections. In our Fiscal Outlook, we strongly advised the Legislature to treat near-term strength in tax collections as temporary because we expect these gains to reverse. Further, the state faces significant structural deficits in the future.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Detail/5133

The 2026-27 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 12, 2026 - Should a stock market downturn occur, income tax revenues would fall considerably. These risks are severe enough that not incorporating them into this year ’s budget, as the Governor proposes, would put the state on precarious footing.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5101