California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - The current discrepancy over the size of the state ’s budget deficit —$18  billion under the Legislative Analyst ’s Office estimate versus $3  billion in the Governor ’s budget —fits squarely within that pattern.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? [EconTax Blog]

Mar 9, 2026 - By most measures, the global financial crisis was more severe than the dot-com crash. The state 's unemployment rate, for example, peaked at 7 percent following the dot-com crash but reached nearly double that during the financial crisis and remained elevated for much longer.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/852

How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? [EconTax Blog]

Mar 9, 2026 - By most measures, the global financial crisis was more severe than the dot-com crash. The state 's unemployment rate, for example, peaked at 7 percent following the dot-com crash but reached nearly double that during the financial crisis and remained elevated for much longer.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/article/Detail/852

Oversight of certain public benefit artificial intelligence (AI) companies. [Ballot]

Jan 20, 2026 - The measure would have the following major fiscal effects: Increased state costs that would likely be in the tens of millions of dollars annually to establish and operate a new regulatory commission overseeing certain public benefit AI com panies.
https://lao.ca.gov/BallotAnalysis/Initiative/2025-033

The 2026-27 Budget: Judicial Branch

Feb 11, 2026 - This is less than the $106  million the trial courts could have retained under the current 3  percent cap. Background Judicial Branch Has Extensive Facility Needs. The judicial branch currently manages around 430 facilities across all 58 counties.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5113

The 2026-27 Budget: California State University

Feb 24, 2026 - It also would provide CSU with its remaining 3  percent ongoing base increase ($151  million) associated with the 2025 ‑26 compact payment in  2028 ‑29. CSU Anticipates Receiving Additional Tuition Revenue in 2026 ‑27.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5142

The 2026-27 Budget: In-Home Supportive Services

Mar 18, 2026 - Over the next eight years, growth rates fluctuated between 3  percent and 8  percent, until reaching a peak growth rate of 10.2  percent and 10.4  percent in 2001 ‑02 and 2002 ‑03, respectively. Caseload growth then hovered between 4.5  percent and 8  percent for the next six years.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5166

The 2026-27 Budget: California Department of Corrections and Rehabilitation

Feb 23, 2026 - Figure  8 shows the goals and accompanying selected actions. The Receiver ’s initial estimated cost to begin implementing the action plan is $41.4  million annually. The main drivers of these costs are (1)  salary increases for mental health staff ($25.3  million), (2)  establishing the Office of the Receiver ($8.2  million), and (3)  creating resource teams to support staff working in inpatient units ($6.7  million).
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5137

Realignment and County Indigent Health Care Programs [Publication Details]

Mar 19, 2026 - Presented to: Senate Budget Subcommittee No. 3 on Health and Human Services
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Detail/5164

The 2026-27 Budget: Community College Facilities

Mar 17, 2026 - Of the project proposals that districts submitted for 2026-27, 7 out of 27 eligible modernization projects (26  percent) are included in the Governor ’s budget, compared to 3 out of 8 eligible growth projects (38  percent).
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5159