California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - Whereas California’s labor market has stagnated over the last two years, the S&P 500 stock index has appreciated roughly 50 percent over the same period. And most of this increase has come from skyrocketing share prices among a handful of firms associated with innovations in Artificial Intelligence (AI).
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? [EconTax Blog]

Mar 9, 2026 - By most measures, the global financial crisis was more severe than the dot-com crash. The state 's unemployment rate, for example, peaked at 7 percent following the dot-com crash but reached nearly double that during the financial crisis and remained elevated for much longer.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/852

How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? [EconTax Blog]

Mar 9, 2026 - By most measures, the global financial crisis was more severe than the dot-com crash. The state 's unemployment rate, for example, peaked at 7 percent following the dot-com crash but reached nearly double that during the financial crisis and remained elevated for much longer.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/article/Detail/852

Oversight of certain public benefit artificial intelligence (AI) companies. [Ballot]

Jan 20, 2026 - The measure would have the following major fiscal effects: Increased state costs that would likely be in the tens of millions of dollars annually to establish and operate a new regulatory commission overseeing certain public benefit AI com panies.
https://lao.ca.gov/BallotAnalysis/Initiative/2025-033

The 2026-27 Budget: California State University

Feb 24, 2026 - The total marginal cost (state and student shares combined) of increasing resident undergraduate enrollment by 1  percent in 2026 ‑27 is $58  million. Provide more funding for student financial aid. Specifically, CSU plans to designate $67  million for this purpose.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5142

The 2026-27 Budget: Judicial Branch

Feb 11, 2026 - The judicial branch currently manages around 430 facilities across all 58 counties. Its facility program is responsible for various activities including maintaining these facilities, managing leases, and constructing new courthouses to replace outdated facilities.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5113

California State University Capital Outlay Projects [EdBudget]

Mar 26, 2026 - Annual debt service costs, which CSU will pay using its General Fund support, is estimated to be $50 million. b The campus is anticipated to contribute $12 million for this project. This includes $10 million in donor support and $2 million in campus reserves. c The campus is anticipated to contribute $9.6 million in campus reserves for this project.
https://lao.ca.gov/Education/EdBudget/Details/1082

The 2026-27 Budget: California Department of Corrections and Rehabilitation

Feb 23, 2026 - For example, the California Department of Health Care Access and Information in 2022 estimated that there would be a shortage of psychiatrists and behavioral health providers in all 58 California counties by 2025, with 27 prisons located in counties experiencing high or severe shortages.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5137

The 2026-27 Budget: Community College Facilities

Mar 17, 2026 - The Chancellor ’s Office may designate up to 50  percent of state funding each year for life safety projects, though the amount needed to fund all project proposals in this category is typically much lower.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5159

The 2026-27 Budget: Streamlining California’s Affordable Housing Funding System

Mar 6, 2026 - In years of leaner supplies of state subsidies, however, demand for the set ‑aside pool will be much less and a mandatory 50  percent set ‑aside for HDFC projects could be too high. This prospect becomes even more likely due to the up ‑to ‑doubling of the availability of federal 4  percent tax credits resulting from H.R. 1.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5154