California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - The current discrepancy over the size of the state ’s budget deficit —$18  billion under the Legislative Analyst ’s Office estimate versus $3  billion in the Governor ’s budget —fits squarely within that pattern.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? [EconTax Blog]

Mar 9, 2026 - By most measures, the global financial crisis was more severe than the dot-com crash. The state 's unemployment rate, for example, peaked at 7 percent following the dot-com crash but reached nearly double that during the financial crisis and remained elevated for much longer.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/852

How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? [EconTax Blog]

Mar 9, 2026 - By most measures, the global financial crisis was more severe than the dot-com crash. The state 's unemployment rate, for example, peaked at 7 percent following the dot-com crash but reached nearly double that during the financial crisis and remained elevated for much longer.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/article/Detail/852

Oversight of certain public benefit artificial intelligence (AI) companies. [Ballot]

Jan 20, 2026 - The measure would have the following major fiscal effects: Increased state costs that would likely be in the tens of millions of dollars annually to establish and operate a new regulatory commission overseeing certain public benefit AI com panies.
https://lao.ca.gov/BallotAnalysis/Initiative/2025-033

The 2026-27 Budget: Judicial Branch

Feb 11, 2026 - The judicial branch currently manages around 430 facilities across all 58 counties. Its facility program is responsible for various activities including maintaining these facilities, managing leases, and constructing new courthouses to replace outdated facilities.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5113

The 2026-27 Budget: California State University

Feb 24, 2026 - The total marginal cost (state and student shares combined) of increasing resident undergraduate enrollment by 1  percent in 2026 ‑27 is $58  million. Provide more funding for student financial aid. Specifically, CSU plans to designate $67  million for this purpose.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5142

The 2026-27 Budget: Re-Envisioning State Education Governance

Mar 18, 2026 - For the Board of Governors, the SPI ’s membership would increase the number of members from 18 to 19. Retains Existing Statutory Duties of SBE. While the Governor ’s budget proposes composition changes to the SBE by making the SPI a voting member, it does not propose any other changes.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5165

Firearms and Ammunition Revenue Update (2025 Q4) [EconTax Blog]

Feb 18, 2026 - Firearms and Ammunition Revenue Update (2025 Q4) [EconTax Blog] Firearms and Ammunition Revenue Update (2025 Q4) February 18, 2026 Seth Kerstein Beginning July 2024, Chapter 231 of 2023 (AB 28, Gabriel) imposed an 11 percent excise tax on retail sales of firearms, firearm precursor parts, and ammunition, with some exemptions.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/article/Detail/849

Firearms and Ammunition Revenue Update (2025 Q4) [EconTax Blog]

Feb 18, 2026 - Firearms and Ammunition Revenue Update (2025 Q4) [EconTax Blog] Firearms and Ammunition Revenue Update (2025 Q4) February 18, 2026 Seth Kerstein Beginning July 2024, Chapter 231 of 2023 (AB 28, Gabriel) imposed an 11 percent excise tax on retail sales of firearms, firearm precursor parts, and ammunition, with some exemptions.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/849

The 2026-27 Budget: California Department of Corrections and Rehabilitation

Feb 23, 2026 - For example, the California Department of Health Care Access and Information in 2022 estimated that there would be a shortage of psychiatrists and behavioral health providers in all 58 California counties by 2025, with 27 prisons located in counties experiencing high or severe shortages.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5137