California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - Unpacking this question calls for revisiting what is driving the state ’s current revenue boom. As we described in our November Fiscal Outlook , the recent stronger-than-expected revenue trends are almost entirely explained by the personal income tax (PIT), which has seen double digit growth this year.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? [EconTax Blog]

Mar 9, 2026 - By most measures, the global financial crisis was more severe than the dot-com crash. The state 's unemployment rate, for example, peaked at 7 percent following the dot-com crash but reached nearly double that during the financial crisis and remained elevated for much longer.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/852

How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? [EconTax Blog]

Mar 9, 2026 - By most measures, the global financial crisis was more severe than the dot-com crash. The state 's unemployment rate, for example, peaked at 7 percent following the dot-com crash but reached nearly double that during the financial crisis and remained elevated for much longer.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/article/Detail/852

The 2026-27 Budget: Judicial Branch

Feb 11, 2026 - This means that additional issues could be identified that drive further cost increases. The sizeable increase in funding raises questions on whether sufficient oversight was in place to appropriately assess the scope of work and costs before the project began.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5113

The 2026-27 Budget: Proposed Zero-Emission Vehicle Incentive

Feb 24, 2026 - For example, in recent years, the state has supported the Driving Clean Assistance and regional Clean Cars 4 All (CC4All) programs through periodic budget appropriations. These programs provide income ‑qualified households with rebates toward the purchase of ZEVs.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5140

The 2026-27 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 12, 2026 - This  higher revenue assumption substantially improves the budget condition relative to our forecast and is the main driving difference between our estimates of the deficit. Higher Spending Estimates Erode Some of the Budget Improvement.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5101

Oversight of certain public benefit artificial intelligence (AI) companies. [Ballot]

Jan 20, 2026 - The measure would have the following major fiscal effects: Increased state costs that would likely be in the tens of millions of dollars annually to establish and operate a new regulatory commission overseeing certain public benefit AI com panies.
https://lao.ca.gov/BallotAnalysis/Initiative/2025-033

The 2026-27 Budget: Department of Developmental Services

Mar 13, 2026 - Four Key Factors Drive Spending in DDS. As discussed in the analysis that follows, the Lanterman Act, due to its foundational role, influences all cost drivers in the developmental services system. These cost drivers (similar to other health and human services programs) include caseload, available services, utilization of services, and the rates paid for services.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5157