California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - The disagreement is not about whether revenues are currently strong or even whether the market conditions giving rise to them are susceptible to a downturn. Rather, the issue is whether a wait-and-see approach suffices or whether this long-standing risk to California ’s finances should be incorporated into the state ’s budget assumptions from the start.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? [EconTax Blog]

Mar 9, 2026 - By most measures, the global financial crisis was more severe than the dot-com crash. The state 's unemployment rate, for example, peaked at 7 percent following the dot-com crash but reached nearly double that during the financial crisis and remained elevated for much longer.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/852

How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? [EconTax Blog]

Mar 9, 2026 - By most measures, the global financial crisis was more severe than the dot-com crash. The state 's unemployment rate, for example, peaked at 7 percent following the dot-com crash but reached nearly double that during the financial crisis and remained elevated for much longer.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/article/Detail/852

Oversight of certain public benefit artificial intelligence (AI) companies. [Ballot]

Jan 20, 2026 - The measure would have the following major fiscal effects: Increased state costs that would likely be in the tens of millions of dollars annually to establish and operate a new regulatory commission overseeing certain public benefit AI com panies.
https://lao.ca.gov/BallotAnalysis/Initiative/2025-033

The 2026-27 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget [Publication Details]

Jan 12, 2026 - On January 9, 2026, Governor Newsom’s administration presented its proposed state budget to the California Legislature. In this report, we provide a high-level summary and our initial analysis of the Governor’s budget based on our preliminary review (as of January 10). Assembly Budget Handout (PDF) Senate Budget and Fiscal Review Handout (PDF)
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Detail/5101

The 2026-27 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 12, 2026 - This  higher revenue assumption substantially improves the budget condition relative to our forecast and is the main driving difference between our estimates of the deficit. Higher Spending Estimates Erode Some of the Budget Improvement.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5101

The 2026-27 Budget: Bureau for Private Postsecondary Education

Mar 25, 2026 - Figure 2 BPPE Fund Faces Insolvency Even Under Governor ’s Proposal Projected Fund Condition (In Millions) a 2025 ‑26
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5169

The 2026-27 Budget: Framework for Approaching the Natural Resources, Environmental Protection, and Agriculture Budget

Feb 10, 2026 - The administration clearly crafted these proposals with careful consideration of the budget condition in mind and by using a discerning set of standards. That said, the Legislature may choose to set its “bar ” for approving funding for new activities at a different level —either because of differing priorities, or by necessity based on its overall strategy to address the evolving budget condition.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5116

The 2026-27 Budget: Community College Facilities

Mar 17, 2026 - As Figure  1 shows, modernization projects receive points based on the age and condition of the facility. Meanwhile, growth projects receive points based on projected enrollment growth at the campus, as well as how its existing capacity compares to its enrollment level.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5159

The 2026-27 Budget: Proposed Elimination of State Environmental Positions

Feb 17, 2026 - In contrast, maintaining special-funded positions would have no direct impact on the General Fund condition. We recommend the Legislature maintain the special-funded environmental positions it identified in its review (216 of the total 349).
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5124