The 2025-26 Budget: Undertaking Fiscal Oversight

Feb 24, 2025 - The Legislature can first assess whether the problem addressed by the program is well defined. For example, is the program aimed at a well-understood gap or market failure? Does the problem still exist in the way it did when the program was created?
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4983

Rethinking California's Reserve Policy

Apr 10, 2025 - Although this is a clear improvement over current law, it also implies that, even under the Governor’s proposal, either reductions to core services or tax increases would still be common. In our view, this means more improvements are warranted.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5028

The 2025-26 Budget: Multiyear Budget Outlook

May 24, 2025 - While our revenue forecast is designed to balance the risk of over- and underestimation, history shows that actual revenues can vary from our median projection by billions or even tens of billions of dollars over a multiyear period.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5052

The 2025-26 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 13, 2025 - Instead, the gains appear largely tied to the booming stock market, a situation which can change rapidly and without warning. The  administration appears to share some of these concerns, noting recent job losses among high ‑wage workers and the risks posed by the inherent volatility of tax receipts tied to stock market gains.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4951