The 2025-26 Budget: Initial Comments on the Governor's May Revision

May 17, 2025 - Revenues for prior and current years are up a total of $6  billion, primarily reflecting stronger ‑than ‑expect personal income tax collections which are running $4  billion ahead of prior projections as of April.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5044

The 2025-26 Budget: Undertaking Fiscal Oversight

Feb 24, 2025 - Specifically, our November forecasted spending growth is about 6  percent over the multiyear period (2026-27 thought 2028-29) —a growth rate that is high by historical outlook standards and slightly above what we consider to be long-term revenue growth.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4983

Rethinking California's Reserve Policy

Apr 10, 2025 - Figure  6 shows a measure of state revenue volatility put together by researchers at the Pew Charitable Trusts using 15 years of revenue collection data. According to this measure, California has one of the most volatile tax revenue systems in the country, ranking fifth out of 50 states.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5028