How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? [EconTax Blog]

Mar 9, 2026 - How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? [EconTax Blog] How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? March 9, 2026 Chas Alamo State Budget Is Heavily Reliant on Stock Market Earnings.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/852

How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? [EconTax Blog]

Mar 9, 2026 - How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? [EconTax Blog] How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? March 9, 2026 Chas Alamo State Budget Is Heavily Reliant on Stock Market Earnings.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/article/Detail/852

California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - Rather than broad-based economic growth, PIT strength has been fueled by a very bullish stock market. Whereas California’s labor market has stagnated over the last two years, the S&P 500 stock index has appreciated roughly 50 percent over the same period.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

The 2026-27 Budget: Proposition 98 Guarantee and K-12 Spending Plan

Feb 4, 2026 - Investors are borrowing large sums to buy stocks, and households are more invested in the stock market than at any time in at least 70 years. Historically, these signs have preceded stock market downturns.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5110

The 2026-27 Budget: Higher Education Overview

Feb 5, 2026 - New Higher Education Spending Is at Risk Given Stock Market Signals. The administration ’s higher revenue estimates are mainly driven by strong stock market performance. Certain factors signal the stock market might be approaching a peak.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5112

The 2026-27 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 12, 2026 - Stock Market Poses Serious Risk to Revenues. Several historically reliable signs suggest the stock market is overheated and at high risk of reversing course into a downturn in the next year or so. Should a stock market downturn occur, income tax revenues would fall considerably.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5101

Prohibit new taxes on financial assets and other personal property. [Ballot]

Jan 27, 2026 - One major type of personal property that is not taxed is financial assets like stocks. Proposal No New Taxes on Financial Assets or Other Personal Property. New taxes on the ownership of financial assets or other personal property would not be allowed.
https://lao.ca.gov/BallotAnalysis/Initiative/2025-041

The 2026-27 Budget: How to Use One-Time Revenue Improvements

Feb 20, 2026 - The 2026-27 Budget: How to Use One-Time Revenue Improvements The 2026-27 Budget How to Use One-Time Revenue Improvements Recent stock market performance continues to boost income tax collections. In our Fiscal Outlook , we strongly advised the Legislature to treat near-term strength in tax collections as temporary because we expect these gains to reverse.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5133

The 2026-27 Budget: Proposed Zero-Emission Vehicle Incentive

Feb 24, 2026 - Moreover, even without a stock market downturn, both our office and the administration expect the state to face multiyear deficits, with estimates ranging from $20   billion to $35   billion annually.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5140

The 2026-27 Budget: California Community Colleges

Mar 5, 2026 - The Governor ’s estimates of the Proposition  98 minimum guarantee are based on revenue projections that do not account for the risk of a stock market downturn. As we discuss in The 2026‑27 Budget: Overview of the Governor’s Budget , several signs suggest the stock market is overvalued and at elevated risk of a downturn.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5150