The 2022-23 Budget: California’s Fiscal Outlook

Nov 17, 2021 - Operating Surplus of $5 Billion in 2022 ‑23. In addition to the factors described above, which are revisions to the 2021 ‑22 Budget Act , our outlook anticipates the state will have an additional $5.2 billion operating surplus in 2022 ‑23.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4472

How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? [EconTax Blog]

Mar 9, 2026 - Revenues regained their nominal levels in 55 months after the dot-com bubble, 53 months following the global financial crisis, and 40 months after the 2022 rate hike drawdown. Multi-year revenue declines amplify the strain on the state budget during major market downturns.  
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/852

How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? [EconTax Blog]

Mar 9, 2026 - Revenues regained their nominal levels in 55 months after the dot-com bubble, 53 months following the global financial crisis, and 40 months after the 2022 rate hike drawdown. Multi-year revenue declines amplify the strain on the state budget during major market downturns.  
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/article/Detail/852

The 2022-23 Budget: Special Education Proposals

Jan 25, 2022 - The 2022-23 Budget: Special Education Proposals The 2022‑23 Budget Special Education Proposals Summary. This post provides background on various special education programs, describes the Governor ’s proposals related to these topics, and offers associated recommendations and issues for the Legislature to consider.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4494

The 2026-27 Budget: Supplemental Security Income/State Supplementary Payment (SSI/SSP) Program

Mar 3, 2026 - SSP Grants Were Increased in 2016-17, 2021-22, 2022-23, and 2023-24.  Since the Great Recession, as seen in Figure  2, grants for individuals and couples have been increased four times —in 2016-17 (by 2.76  percent), 2021-22 (by 23.95  percent), 2022-23 (by 10.3  percent), and 2023-24 (by 9.2  percent).
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5148

Cannabis Tax Revenue Update (2025 Q4) [EconTax Blog]

Feb 26, 2026 - Chapter 56 of 2022 (AB 195, Committee on Budget) eliminated the cultivation tax on July 1, 2022. Preliminary Total for Fourth Quarter of 2025: $145 Million. The administration currently estimates that retail excise tax revenue was $145 million in the fourth quarter of calendar year 2025 (October through December).
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/851

Cannabis Tax Revenue Update (2025 Q4) [EconTax Blog]

Feb 26, 2026 - Chapter 56 of 2022 (AB 195, Committee on Budget) eliminated the cultivation tax on July 1, 2022. Preliminary Total for Fourth Quarter of 2025: $145 Million. The administration currently estimates that retail excise tax revenue was $145 million in the fourth quarter of calendar year 2025 (October through December).
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/article/Detail/851

Building California’s Behavioral Health Infrastructure: Progress Update and Opportunities for the Proposition 1 Bond

Feb 5, 2025 - Similarly, in 2021 ‑2022, 22  percent of California adults had a mental illness. In 2022, fewer than 80  percent of those with a mental illness received mental health treatment. The shortage of mental health services is more severe for young adults, with 34  percent of individuals aged 18 through 25 having a mental illness in 2021 ‑2022 and less than two ‑thirds of young adults with mental illness receiving services  in 2022.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4954

The 2026-27 Budget: Child Welfare

Mar 3, 2026 - Center for Excellence $750,000 ongoing beginning in 2022 ‑23. Emergency Response Augmentation $50 million one ‑time in 2021 ‑22 and again in 2022 ‑23, expendable for four years (through June 30, 2026 for the later allocation).
https://lao.ca.gov/publications/report/5147

California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - After the dot-com bust and the Great Recession, it took four and five years, respectively, for revenues to recover. Incorporating revenue risk into the budget now, therefore, reflects prudence, not pessimism.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104