California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - After the dot-com bust and the Great Recession, it took four and five years, respectively, for revenues to recover. Incorporating revenue risk into the budget now, therefore, reflects prudence, not pessimism.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - Moreover, we estimate costs in other programs to be about $6  billion higher than anticipated. Starting in 2027 ‑28, we estimate structural deficits to grow to about $35  billion annually due to spending growth continuing to outstrip revenue growth.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

Whether or Not to Tap Reserves to Solve Estimated Budget Problem Emerges as Key Fiscal Decision Facing California’s Legislature

Apr 19, 2023 - Other downturns, such as the 2001 so-called dot-com recession, had severe fiscal implications while inflicting somewhat milder economic damage. The 2008 Great Recession had brutal effects on both the state ’s economy and budget.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4762

The 2026-27 Budget: How to Use One-Time Revenue Improvements

Feb 20, 2026 - In addition, recent budgets have relied on nearly $30  billion in borrowing to address deficits, and the Governor ’s budget proposes almost $6  billion in additional borrowing (see Figure  1). A period of strong revenue growth is not an appropriate time to draw down significant reserves or continue to rely on borrowing.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5133

The 2023-24 Budget: Multiyear Assessment

Feb 15, 2023 - After accounting for proposed budget solutions, the administration estimates the state has $15.2  billion in one ‑time or temporary spending scheduled for 2023 ‑24, $9.3  billion in 2024 ‑25, and $6  billion in 2025 ‑26.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4687

The 2022-23 Budget: Fiscal Outlook for Schools and Community Colleges

Nov 17, 2021 - The state created ELO ‑P in the 2021 ‑22 budget to fund before/after school programs and summer programs for students in Transitional Kindergarten through grade 6. The Legislature and Governor previously agreed to ramp up ongoing funding over the next four years —from $1 billion in 2021 ‑22 to about $5 billion by 2025 ‑26.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4473

Rethinking California's Reserve Policy

Apr 10, 2025 - In March of 2004, on the heels of the dot ‑com bust, voters passed Proposition  58, which created the Budget Stabilization Account (BSA). In the 2006 ‑07 budget, the Legislature deposited $472  million into the BSA and in 2007 ‑08 deposited $1.5  billion.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5028

The 2025-26 Budget: Initial Comments on the Governor's May Revision

May 17, 2025 - Revenues for prior and current years are up a total of $6  billion, primarily reflecting stronger ‑than ‑expect personal income tax collections which are running $4  billion ahead of prior projections as of April.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5044

The 2026-27 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 12, 2026 - This includes proposals to: (1)  remove the state ’s share of costs associated with growth in IHSS hours per case, which we estimate could save $650  million by 2029 ‑30 (if hours continue to grow at their current rates); (2)  make an ongoing reduction to the Middle Class Scholarship program, which generates $541  million in savings beginning in 2027 ‑28; and (3)  make $12  million in previously provided ongoing federal ‑related litigation funding limited term.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5101

The 2022-23 Budget: Overview of Proposition 98 Proposals [Publication Details]

Jan 27, 2022 - This analysis describes the overall structure of the Governor's plan for school and community college funding, including the major spending proposals and underlying estimates of the Proposition 98 minimum guarantee.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Detail/4502