The 2022-23 Budget: California’s Fiscal Outlook

Nov 17, 2021 - The SAL Will Continue to Impact Budget Choices if Revenues Continue to Grow Faster Than the Limit. From 2015 ‑16 to our most recent estimates in 2022 ‑23, SAL revenues have grown an average of 7.4 percent annually.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4472

California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - The added risk variable weighs on the range of revenue outcomes that we view as most plausible. The middle of the range, which becomes our main revenue forecast, is thus lower than if we did not include the stock market risk indicator.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

The 2026-27 Budget: How to Use One-Time Revenue Improvements

Feb 20, 2026 - Our recent revenue post suggests an improvement in revenues of around $5 billion relative to the Governor’s budget estimates. Under the state’s constitutional budget formulas, a revenue increase of this magnitude would translate, very roughly, into a $2.5 billion improvement in the budget bottom line.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5133

The 2026-27 Budget: How to Use One-Time Revenue Improvements [Publication Details]

Feb 20, 2026 - The 2026-27 Budget: How to Use One-Time Revenue Improvements [Publication Details] Translate Our Website This Google ™ translation feature provided on the Legislative Analyst's Office (LAO) website is for informational purposes only.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Detail/5133

The 2021-22 Budget: Multiyear Budget Outlook

May 23, 2021 - Despite this, the 2022‑23 budget—under the May Revision proposals—would be nearly balanced due to the carry in balance. (The carry in balance is revenue collected from prior years carried forward.) This outcome means the Governor’s proposals for 2022‑23 depend on revenue growth to balance the budget.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4437

Rethinking California's Reserve Policy

Apr 10, 2025 - After allocating surpluses totaling over $100  billion across 2021 ‑22 and 2022 ‑23, the Legislature has addressed cumulative budget problems of $82  billion in the years since. Budget problems are also likely to persist for the foreseeable future.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5028

The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - First, the budget problem is now larger than anticipated, despite improvements in revenue, and the structural deficits are significant and growing. Second, while our revenue estimates hedge against a market downturn, they do not reflect the revenue declines the state would experience in a recession.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook [Publication Details]

Nov 19, 2025 - Each year, our office publishes the Fiscal Outlook in anticipation of the upcoming budget season. This report gives the Legislature our independent estimates and analysis of the state’s General Fund budget condition with the goal of helping lawmakers prepare for the 2026-27 budget process.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Detail/5091

The 2025-26 Budget: Overview of the Spending Plan

Oct 16, 2025 - During the special session, the Legislature added Control Sections 90.00 and 90.01 to the 2024 ‑25 Budget Act providing up to $2.5  billion one ‑time for response and recovery costs related to the January 2025 Southern California wildfires.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5079

New Inflation Poses Not So New Budget Risk

Dec 15, 2022 - A decelerating economy —with or without a recession —combined with reduced capital gains from real estate or financial investments diminishes the state ’s revenue outlook. Already, we estimate that in the current budget window —spanning 2021-22 through 2023- 24 —tax revenues will be $41  billion lower than what the 2022-23 Budget Act assumes.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4653