The 2025-26 Budget: Higher Education Overview

Feb 6, 2025 - Recommend Signaling More Realistic Budget Expectations for CSU and UC in 2026 ‑27. To balance the budget in 2024 ‑25, the state applied small General Fund reductions to CSU and UC. At  the same time, the state provided a clear signal to CSU and UC that they were to begin planning for deeper base reductions in 2025 ‑26.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4957

Updated "Big Three" Revenue Outlook [EconTax Blog]

Aug 21, 2023 - The state has added no jobs so far in 2025. Similarly, consumer spending (measured by inflation‑adjusted retail sales and taxable sales) has consistently declined. These conditions have weighed on sales tax collections in particular, which have moved sideways for multiple years.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/777

Updated "Big Three" Revenue Outlook [EconTax Blog]

Aug 21, 2023 - The state has added no jobs so far in 2025. Similarly, consumer spending (measured by inflation‑adjusted retail sales and taxable sales) has consistently declined. These conditions have weighed on sales tax collections in particular, which have moved sideways for multiple years.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/article/Detail/777

The 2023-24 Budget: California State University

Feb 7, 2023 - Recommend Also Signaling Enrollment Growth Intentions for 2024 ‑25. Given the timing of the admissions cycle, we recommend the Legislature also signal any intent for additional enrollment growth in 2024 ‑25 in the 2023 ‑24 Budget Act .
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4671

Did California Enter a Recession Last Fall? [EconTax Blog]

Oct 3, 2023 - Adding to this, the state version of a commonly-used recession  indicator  triggered on in the first quarter of 2023.  This indicator, known as the Sahm Rule, has historically triggered on between one quarter before and one quarter after the start of a recession.  
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/785

Uptick in Unemployment Rate Triggered a Recession Indicator [EconTax Blog]

Oct 3, 2023 - (The Sahm Rule has signaled the start of each recession in the same month, or within a few months of, the National Bureau of Economic Research's formal recession dating committee , which dates the start of each recession after-the-fact.) 
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/article/Detail/786

Uptick in Unemployment Rate Triggered a Recession Indicator [EconTax Blog]

Oct 3, 2023 - (The Sahm Rule has signaled the start of each recession in the same month, or within a few months of, the National Bureau of Economic Research's formal recession dating committee , which dates the start of each recession after-the-fact.) 
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/786

Early Data Revision Shows No Job Creation During 2024 Q4 [EconTax Blog]

Jun 24, 2025 - Newest Revision  Shows State Added No Jobs from September Through December 2024.   Based on the most recent release of the early benchmarks, shown in the figure below, the monthly business survey appears to have overestimated job growth by 100,000 jobs.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/article/Detail/833

Early Data Revision Shows No Job Creation During 2024 Q4 [EconTax Blog]

Jun 24, 2025 - Newest Revision  Shows State Added No Jobs from September Through December 2024.   Based on the most recent release of the early benchmarks, shown in the figure below, the monthly business survey appears to have overestimated job growth by 100,000 jobs.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/833

The 2025-26 Budget: Various California Air Resources Board Proposals

Feb 24, 2025 - Requires airport shuttle operators to begin adding zero ‑emission shuttles to their fleets in 2027 and to fully transition to ZEVs  by  2036. Federal Waivers Required for Many of CARB ’s Regulations.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4980