How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? [EconTax Blog]

Mar 9, 2026 - By most measures, the global financial crisis was more severe than the dot-com crash. The state 's unemployment rate, for example, peaked at 7 percent following the dot-com crash but reached nearly double that during the financial crisis and remained elevated for much longer.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/852

How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? [EconTax Blog]

Mar 9, 2026 - By most measures, the global financial crisis was more severe than the dot-com crash. The state 's unemployment rate, for example, peaked at 7 percent following the dot-com crash but reached nearly double that during the financial crisis and remained elevated for much longer.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/article/Detail/852

California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - After the dot-com bust and the Great Recession, it took four and five years, respectively, for revenues to recover. Incorporating revenue risk into the budget now, therefore, reflects prudence, not pessimism.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

Oversight of certain public benefit artificial intelligence (AI) companies. [Ballot]

Jan 20, 2026 - The measure would have the following major fiscal effects: Increased state costs that would likely be in the tens of millions of dollars annually to establish and operate a new regulatory commission overseeing certain public benefit AI com panies.
https://lao.ca.gov/BallotAnalysis/Initiative/2025-033

The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - For California, the dot ‑com era —when stocks rose and then fell precipitously in response to widespread adoption of the internet —offers the most salient example. The internet has proven to be a transformative technology and, yet, the stock market ’s initial reaction was clearly overly exuberant.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

Insurance regulation. [Ballot]

Nov 10, 2025 - An insurer could ask the Insurance Commissioner to waive this requirement if the insurer already covers a lot of homes in places with high wildfire risk. Any insurer that repeat edly violates this requirement or stops selling new insurance policies in order to avoid it would be banned from selling property and automobile insurance in California for five ye ars.
https://lao.ca.gov/BallotAnalysis/Initiative/2025-020

Personal income tax rates for high-income taxpayers. [Ballot]

Oct 20, 2025 - These types of income are closely tied to the stock market and therefore go up and down a lot from year to year. In a weak year, the measure might bring in aroun d $5  billion in revenue. In a strong year, the measure might bring in $15  billion in annual revenue.
https://lao.ca.gov/BallotAnalysis/Initiative/2025-016

Rethinking California's Reserve Policy

Apr 10, 2025 - In March of 2004, on the heels of the dot ‑com bust, voters passed Proposition  58, which created the Budget Stabilization Account (BSA). In the 2006 ‑07 budget, the Legislature deposited $472  million into the BSA and in 2007 ‑08 deposited $1.5  billion.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5028

The 2025-26 Budget: Single Sales Factor for Financial Institutions [EconTax Blog]

Feb 13, 2025 - One reason for this result is that a lot of the benefit of a reduced tax burden on property and payroll accrues to firms already located in-state and do not expand in response to the change. This is also known as a windfall benefit.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/821

Building California’s Behavioral Health Infrastructure: Progress Update and Opportunities for the Proposition 1 Bond

Feb 5, 2025 - The administration is working to allocate the bond funding quickly, with plans to aw ard up to $3.3  billion in May 2025 and a stated commitment to award all funding by 2026. This leaves a brief window in which the Legislature can conduct oversight of the program and influence the administration ’s program administration decisions.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4954