How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? [EconTax Blog]

Mar 9, 2026 - Revenues regained their nominal levels in 55 months after the dot-com bubble, 53 months following the global financial crisis, and 40 months after the 2022 rate hike drawdown. Multi-year revenue declines amplify the strain on the state budget during major market downturns.  
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/852

How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? [EconTax Blog]

Mar 9, 2026 - Revenues regained their nominal levels in 55 months after the dot-com bubble, 53 months following the global financial crisis, and 40 months after the 2022 rate hike drawdown. Multi-year revenue declines amplify the strain on the state budget during major market downturns.  
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/article/Detail/852

California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - The current discrepancy over the size of the state ’s budget deficit —$18  billion under the Legislative Analyst ’s Office estimate versus $3  billion in the Governor ’s budget —fits squarely within that pattern.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

The 2022-23 California Spending Plan: Child Care and Preschool

Oct 27, 2022 - Figure  3 shows these adjustments in more detail. Figure 3 Changes in Preschool Adjustment Factors Previous Adjustment Receiving mental health consultation services 1.05 1.10 Requires State Preschool Providers Serve Children With Disabilities.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4643

The 2024-25 Budget: Deficit Update

Feb 20, 2024 - Specifically, our forecast is about $24 billion below the Governor’s budget across 2022‑23 to 2024‑25. All else equal, this means the budget problem is likely to be higher at the time of the May Revision.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4850

The 2024-25 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 13, 2024 - We estimate the proposed budget includes about $3 billion in reversions. School and Community College Spending $15   Billion in Lower Spending on Schools and Community Colleges. The California Constitution sets a minimum annual funding requirement for schools and community colleges (otherwise known as Proposition  98 [1988]).
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4825

Firearms and Ammunition Revenue Update (2025 Q2) [EconTax Blog]

Aug 18, 2025 - Preliminary Total for 2024-25: $58 Million. For firearm and ammunition excise tax returns filed for 2024-25, the total amount of tax due is $58 million —a bit lower than the budget package revenue assumption.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/836

The 2024-25 Budget: The Governor’s Proposition 98 Funding Maneuver

Feb 15, 2024 - Currently, for example, the state: (1)  has sizeable balances in its reserve accounts, including the Budget Stabilization Account and Proposition  98 Reserve; (2)  has many special funds that are carrying large balances; and (3)  has allocated large sums to expenditures that take years to disburse, like infrastructure projects.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4840

2025-26 Changes in Proposition 98 Spending [EdBudget]

Feb 4, 2025 - 2025-26 Changes in Proposition 98 Spending [EdBudget] 2025-26 Proposition 98 Spending $118,923 a Applies to Child and Adult Care Food Program, K-12 Mandates Block Grant, and special education. b Reflects additional LCFF costs associated with serving more students in transitional kindergarten, including costs of existing 12:1 staffing ratios. c The Governor's
https://lao.ca.gov/Education/EdBudget/Details/939

The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - Figure 3 General Fund Condition Under Fiscal Outlook (In Millions)
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091