California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - After the dot-com bust and the Great Recession, it took four and five years, respectively, for revenues to recover. Incorporating revenue risk into the budget now, therefore, reflects prudence, not pessimism.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

Whether or Not to Tap Reserves to Solve Estimated Budget Problem Emerges as Key Fiscal Decision Facing California’s Legislature

Apr 19, 2023 - Other downturns, such as the 2001 so-called dot-com recession, had severe fiscal implications while inflicting somewhat milder economic damage. The 2008 Great Recession had brutal effects on both the state ’s economy and budget.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4762

The 2024-25 Budget: Overview of the Spending Plan

Sep 6, 2024 - Update (10/2/24): Figure 8 has been updated for final actions.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4922/3

The 2024-25 Budget: Overview of the Spending Plan

Sep 6, 2024 - Update (10/2/24): Figure 8 has been updated for final actions.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4922/2

The 2024-25 Budget: Overview of the Spending Plan

Sep 6, 2024 - Update (10/2/24): Figure 8 has been updated for final actions.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4922/1

The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - For California, the dot ‑com era —when stocks rose and then fell precipitously in response to widespread adoption of the internet —offers the most salient example. The internet has proven to be a transformative technology and, yet, the stock market ’s initial reaction was clearly overly exuberant.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

Rethinking California's Reserve Policy

Apr 10, 2025 - In March of 2004, on the heels of the dot ‑com bust, voters passed Proposition  58, which created the Budget Stabilization Account (BSA). In the 2006 ‑07 budget, the Legislature deposited $472  million into the BSA and in 2007 ‑08 deposited $1.5  billion.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5028

The 2023-24 Budget: Overview of the Spending Plan (Final Version)

Oct 16, 2023 - Appendix 4, Figure 8 Remaining Large One ‑Time and Temporary Augmentations From the 2021 ‑22 and 2022 ‑23 Budget Packages: Transportation General Fund (In Millions)
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4788/4

The 2024-25 Budget: Multiyear Budget Outlook

May 23, 2024 - Between 2024 ‑25 and 2027 ‑27, HHS programs grow at an average annual rate of 5.1  percent under our projections, compared to 8  percent under the administration ’s estimates. As we have commented in the past, our office has little insight into the components of, or assumptions underlying, the administration ’s projections in HHS.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4907

The 2025-26 Budget: Initial Comments on the Governor's May Revision

May 17, 2025 - The increase is primarily driven by higher costs in the Medi ‑Cal program, which are projected to exceed January estimates by $10  billion over the three ‑year budget window: roughly $2  billion in 2024 ‑25 and $8  billion in 2025 ‑26.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5044