How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? [EconTax Blog]

Mar 9, 2026 - By most measures, the global financial crisis was more severe than the dot-com crash. The state 's unemployment rate, for example, peaked at 7 percent following the dot-com crash but reached nearly double that during the financial crisis and remained elevated for much longer.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/852

How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? [EconTax Blog]

Mar 9, 2026 - By most measures, the global financial crisis was more severe than the dot-com crash. The state 's unemployment rate, for example, peaked at 7 percent following the dot-com crash but reached nearly double that during the financial crisis and remained elevated for much longer.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/article/Detail/852

California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - After the dot-com bust and the Great Recession, it took four and five years, respectively, for revenues to recover. Incorporating revenue risk into the budget now, therefore, reflects prudence, not pessimism.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

The 2026-27 Budget: In-Home Supportive Services

Mar 18, 2026 - Moreover, with a share of cost, counties have an incentive to control program costs in areas over which they have more control (like administration). To achieve these benefits, we believe realignments need to follow certain core principles.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5166

The 2025-26 Budget: California State Library

Mar 7, 2025 - For example, employees might inadvertently make mistakes, such as accidently clicking on a malicious link or downloading harmful ma terials. The California Department of Technology (CDT) also conducted an assessment.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5013

Firearms and Ammunition Revenue Update (2025 Q3) [EconTax Blog]

Nov 18, 2025 - The administration lowered its estimate to $103 million in May 2024 and then to $65 million in May 2025. Current tax return data suggest that the total will be around $58 million. Preliminary Total for Third Quarter of 2025: $13 Million.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/842

Firearms and Ammunition Revenue Update (2025 Q3) [EconTax Blog]

Nov 18, 2025 - The administration lowered its estimate to $103 million in May 2024 and then to $65 million in May 2025. Current tax return data suggest that the total will be around $58 million. Preliminary Total for Third Quarter of 2025: $13 Million.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/article/Detail/842

The 2025-26 Budget: Understanding Recent Increases in the Medi-Cal Senior Caseload

Mar 6, 2025 - While not first ‑time Medi ‑Cal members, we assume that these individuals would have lost coverage absent changes like the asset test elimination. Combined with the 30,000 increase in seniors due to the elimination of a Medi ‑Cal share of cost for certain seniors and 115,000 first ‑time ‑enrolling seniors in Medi ‑Cal, we arrive at a total of at least 165,000  seniors who we estimate are in the program due to eligibility changes.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5010

Firearms and Ammunition Revenue Update (2025 Q2) [EconTax Blog]

Aug 18, 2025 - The recently enacted budget package assumed that 2024-25 revenue would be $65 million. Preliminary Total for 2024-25: $58 Million. For firearm and ammunition excise tax returns filed for 2024-25, the total amount of tax due is $58 million —a bit lower than the budget package revenue assumption.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/836

The 2026-27 Budget: Estimated State Savings From Proposition 47

Feb 23, 2026 - Proposition  47 further requires that monies in the SNSF be allocated as follows: (1)  65  percent to the Board of State and Community Corrections for mental health and substance use treatment, (2)  25  percent to the California Department of Education for school truancy and drop-out prevention, and (3)  10  percent to the California Victim Compensation Board for trauma recovery services.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5108