California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - After the dot-com bust and the Great Recession, it took four and five years, respectively, for revenues to recover. Incorporating revenue risk into the budget now, therefore, reflects prudence, not pessimism.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

Whether or Not to Tap Reserves to Solve Estimated Budget Problem Emerges as Key Fiscal Decision Facing California’s Legislature

Apr 19, 2023 - Other downturns, such as the 2001 so-called dot-com recession, had severe fiscal implications while inflicting somewhat milder economic damage. The 2008 Great Recession had brutal effects on both the state ’s economy and budget.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4762

The 2021-22 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 10, 2021 - The Governor proposes to pay down $8.4  billion of this amount, with districts receiving the associated cash in 2021 ‑22. Slightly more than $4  billion would remain deferred from 2021 ‑22 to 2022 ‑23.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4309

The 2022-23 Budget: California’s Fiscal Outlook

Nov 17, 2021 - As such, consistent with General Fund tax revenue increases, our estimate of required General Fund spending on schools and community colleges for 2020 ‑21 and 2021 ‑22 increases by almost $11  billion.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4472

The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - For California, the dot ‑com era —when stocks rose and then fell precipitously in response to widespread adoption of the internet —offers the most salient example. The internet has proven to be a transformative technology and, yet, the stock market ’s initial reaction was clearly overly exuberant.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

The 2023-24 Budget: Multiyear Assessment

Feb 15, 2023 - As a result, in the last two years, the state saw historic budget surpluses —including $47  billion in 2021 ‑22 and $55  billion in 2022 ‑23. Although the state faces a budget problem this year, anticipated revenue shortfalls this year do not yet reflect a recession.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4687

The 2023-24 Budget: Overview of the Spending Plan (Final Version)

Oct 16, 2023 - Appendix 4, Figure 8 Remaining Large One ‑Time and Temporary Augmentations From the 2021 ‑22 and 2022 ‑23 Budget Packages: Transportation General Fund (In Millions)
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4788/4

The 2022-23 California Spending Plan: Other Provisions

Sep 27, 2022 - Relative to the baseline revenue estimates, repealing the limits on NOLs and credits one year early reduces revenues in 2021-22 a nd 2022-23 and increases revenues somewhat in later years. The budget package assumes the following changes in revenue: -$1.9  billion in 2021-22, -$3.5  billion in 2022-23, and +$170  million in 2023-24.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4626

The 2021-22 Budget: The Governor’s Suspension Proposal

Jan 29, 2021 - Under its own revenue forecast, assuming the suspensions were operative, the administration estimates operating deficits would grow from $7. 6  b illion in 2022 ‑ 23 t o $11. 3  b illion in 2024 ‑25.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4328

Rethinking California's Reserve Policy

Apr 10, 2025 - After allocating surpluses totaling over $100  billion across 2021 ‑22 and 2022 ‑23, the Legislature has addressed cumulative budget problems of $82  billion in the years since. Budget problems are also likely to persist for the foreseeable future.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5028