California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - After the dot-com bust and the Great Recession, it took four and five years, respectively, for revenues to recover. Incorporating revenue risk into the budget now, therefore, reflects prudence, not pessimism.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - For California, the dot ‑com era —when stocks rose and then fell precipitously in response to widespread adoption of the internet —offers the most salient example. The internet has proven to be a transformative technology and, yet, the stock market ’s initial reaction was clearly overly exuberant.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

Whether or Not to Tap Reserves to Solve Estimated Budget Problem Emerges as Key Fiscal Decision Facing California’s Legislature

Apr 19, 2023 - Other downturns, such as the 2001 so-called dot-com recession, had severe fiscal implications while inflicting somewhat milder economic damage. The 2008 Great Recession had brutal effects on both the state ’s economy and budget.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4762

The 2023-24 Budget: Multiyear Assessment

Feb 15, 2023 - Three of those —the recession in the early 1990s, the dot ‑com bust in the early 2000s, and the Great Recession —resulted in large revenue shortfalls and ensuing multiyear deficits, even for some years after each recession ended.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4687

The 2026-27 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 12, 2026 - Taken together, the budget solutions in the Governor ’s budget result in an improvement in the budget ’s bottom line by $9  billion. Ongoing, the Governor ’s spending ‑related solutions provide $5  billion in savings within a few years.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5101

The 2026-27 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget [Publication Details]

Jan 12, 2026 - On January 9, 2026, Governor Newsom’s administration presented its proposed state budget to the California Legislature. In this report, we provide a high-level summary and our initial analysis of the Governor’s budget based on our preliminary review (as of January 10). Assembly Budget Handout (PDF) Senate Budget and Fiscal Review Handout (PDF)
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Detail/5101

Rethinking California's Reserve Policy

Apr 10, 2025 - This change alone would improve upon the Governor’s proposal considerably—under our benchmark scenario, the state would be able to cover two‑thirds of funding shortfalls across 50 years, rather than only half (see Figure 9).
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5028

The 2024-25 Budget: Overview of the Spending Plan

Sep 6, 2024 - The 2024-25 Budget: Overview of the Spending Plan Update (9/11/24): Managed care organization tax increase corrected in Appendix 1 (Figure 4) and Appendix 2 (Figure 1). Update (10/2/24): Figure 8 has been updated for final actions.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4922/3

The 2024-25 Budget: Overview of the Spending Plan

Sep 6, 2024 - The 2024-25 Budget: Overview of the Spending Plan Update (9/11/24): Managed care organization tax increase corrected in Appendix 1 (Figure 4) and Appendix 2 (Figure 1). Update (10/2/24): Figure 8 has been updated for final actions.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4922/2

The 2024-25 Budget: Overview of the Spending Plan

Sep 6, 2024 - The 2024-25 Budget: Overview of the Spending Plan Update (9/11/24): Managed care organization tax increase corrected in Appendix 1 (Figure 4) and Appendix 2 (Figure 1). Update (10/2/24): Figure 8 has been updated for final actions.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4922/1