The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - This Time Might Be Different, but It Is Not Safe to Bet on It. With so much enthusiasm surrounding AI, it now appears time to take seriously the notion that the stock market has become overheated. History suggests that the stock market is prone to overreact to major technological advances, even if the technology itself turns out to be revolutionary.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

Online sports wagering. [Ballot]

Oct 20, 2021 - Eligibility to offer online sports wagering would be limited to: Gaming tribes that choose to give up some of the rights they possess due to their special status under state law, such as agreeing to comply with all of the requirements laid out i n this measure rather than negotiating separate requirements regarding online sports wagering through tribal-state compacts.
https://lao.ca.gov/BallotAnalysis/Initiative/2021-017

Gaming. [Ballot]

Dec 18, 2023 - Since 1999, 80 out of over 100 federally recognized tribes in California have negotiated tribal-state compacts with the state or have been i ssued federal gaming regulations. (We note that not all of these tribes currently operate casinos.)
https://lao.ca.gov/BallotAnalysis/Initiative/2023-030

Tribal gaming. [Ballot]

Dec 27, 2021 - Since 1999, 78 out of over 100 federally recognized Indian tribes in California have negotiated tribal-state compacts with the state or have been issued federal gaming regulations. (We note that not all of these tribes currently operate casinos.)
https://lao.ca.gov/BallotAnalysis/Initiative/2021-039

Sports wagering. [Ballot]

Dec 18, 2023 - Since 1999, 80 out of over 100 federally recognized tribes in California have negotiated tribal-state compacts with the state or have been issued federal gaming regulations. (We note that not all of these tribes currently operate casinos.)
https://lao.ca.gov/BallotAnalysis/Initiative/2023-031

An Update on California Competes [EconTax Blog]

Mar 10, 2023 - One potential interpretation is that the state is making high risk-high reward bets on businesses. While many of these bets do not pan out, the ones that do can be successful enough to yield overall benefits for the state.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/771

The 2025-26 California Spending Plan: Housing, Homelessness and Local Government

Oct 22, 2025 - All four mandates concern municipal stormwater permits issued by regional water quality control boards for the period beginning in 2009 or 2010 through December 2017. The Commission on State Mandates had determined that several requirements in these permits (which local governments already carried out) were state-reimbursable mandates for that time frame.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5082

How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? [EconTax Blog]

Mar 9, 2026 - This Time Might Be Different, but It Is Not Safe to Bet on It.   As our office warned last November, it now appears time to take seriously the notion that the stock market has become overheated. While there is a chance that this time is different and no such downturn is forthcoming, the risk appears strong enough that we have incorporated it into the state 's revenue outlook.  
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/852

How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? [EconTax Blog]

Mar 9, 2026 - This Time Might Be Different, but It Is Not Safe to Bet on It.   As our office warned last November, it now appears time to take seriously the notion that the stock market has become overheated. While there is a chance that this time is different and no such downturn is forthcoming, the risk appears strong enough that we have incorporated it into the state 's revenue outlook.  
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/article/Detail/852

Updating Special Education Out-of-Home Care Funding

Feb 23, 2021 - One option the work group considered was eliminating the Out ‑of ‑Home Care program and shifting funding into the special education base formula (slightly increasing per ‑student rates for all SELPAs).
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4386