The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - This  is not a prediction of what will happen —state and federal laws and policies will change in the coming years —but rather serves as a baseline to help the Legislature understand its starting place.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? [EconTax Blog]

Mar 9, 2026 - This dynamic may be especially notable today. The current run-up in stock prices is similarly concentrated in Silicon Valley technology companies, raising the risk of an outsized revenue loss if that market corrects sharply.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/852

How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? [EconTax Blog]

Mar 9, 2026 - This dynamic may be especially notable today. The current run-up in stock prices is similarly concentrated in Silicon Valley technology companies, raising the risk of an outsized revenue loss if that market corrects sharply.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/article/Detail/852

Online sports wagering. [Ballot]

Oct 20, 2021 - Creates Division of Online Sports Betting Control (DOSBC). This measure creates DOSBC within DOJ, which would have the exclusive authority to regulate online sports wagering as well as to investigate illegal wagering activities (such as “match-fixing ”).
https://lao.ca.gov/BallotAnalysis/Initiative/2021-017

The 2021-22 Budget: School Mental Health

Feb 12, 2021 - As a result, existing partnerships are better positioned to apply for the matching funds. Number of Projects Likely to Receive Matching Funds Is Uncertain. Because the proposal requires CDE to match eligible projects dollar for dollar, a handful of large counties with high ‑cost projects could receive the matching grants and entirely exhaust all available funding.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4368

Personal income tax rates for high-income taxpayers. [Ballot]

Oct 20, 2025 - The amount of money brought in by this measure is hard to predict and will go up and down with the economy. This is because much of the revenue comes from taxing investment income and capital gains. These types of income are closely tied to the stock market and therefore go up and down a lot from year to year.
https://lao.ca.gov/BallotAnalysis/Initiative/2025-016

The 2022-23 Budget: May Revenue Outlook [EconTax Blog]

May 16, 2022 - As the figure below shows, following the six prior episodes with similar economic conditions to today, state revenues posted below average growth. Our May revenue outlook reflects the risk of lack luster revenue growth suggested by this historical experience.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/735

Five Guidelines for Using Revenue Forecasts [EconTax Blog]

Feb 20, 2025 - For instance, historically, assuming tax collection patterns in the first half of the fiscal year persist for the full year tends to miss the mark as a prediction of actual full year collections by $10 billion in a typical year (in today ’s dollars).
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/article/Detail/822

Five Guidelines for Using Revenue Forecasts [EconTax Blog]

Feb 20, 2025 - For instance, historically, assuming tax collection patterns in the first half of the fiscal year persist for the full year tends to miss the mark as a prediction of actual full year collections by $10 billion in a typical year (in today ’s dollars).
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/822

Gaming. [Ballot]

Dec 18, 2023 - Banking games generally involve players betting against the “house, ” who is a participant in the game with an interest in the outcome, and percentage games generally involve the house receiving a percentage of the money involved in the game.
https://lao.ca.gov/BallotAnalysis/Initiative/2023-030