California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - To do this, we add a stock market indicator to our forecast models alongside other the economic variables. The added risk variable weighs on the range of revenue outcomes that we view as most plausible.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

The 2026-27 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 12, 2026 - First, after four years of projected deficits and a cumulative total of $125  billion in budget problems solved so far, the state ’s negative fiscal situation is now chronic. Second, structural deficits have grown —our November outlook is the most negative forecast of the budget ’s position since the pandemic.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5101

The 2026-27 Budget: How to Use One-Time Revenue Improvements

Feb 20, 2026 - For example, we recommend the Legislature: Do Not Suspend the $3  Billion True Up Into the Budget Stabilization Account (BSA). The Governor ’s budget proposes suspending a roughly $3  billion true-up deposit that otherwise would be required in 2025-26.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5133