California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - We have noted how following the dot-com bust and 2001 recession, California relied mostly on short-term solutions rather than realigning its structural imbalance. Consequently, the state went into the Great Recession a few years later with a structural deficit (and virtually no budget reserves), which greatly exacerbated the severity of the fiscal crisis that ensued.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? [EconTax Blog]

Mar 9, 2026 - How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? [EconTax Blog] How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? March 9, 2026 Chas Alamo State Budget Is Heavily Reliant on Stock Market Earnings.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/852

How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? [EconTax Blog]

Mar 9, 2026 - How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? [EconTax Blog] How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? March 9, 2026 Chas Alamo State Budget Is Heavily Reliant on Stock Market Earnings.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/article/Detail/852

The 2026-27 Budget: How to Use One-Time Revenue Improvements [Publication Details]

Feb 20, 2026 - The 2026-27 Budget: How to Use One-Time Revenue Improvements [Publication Details] Translate Our Website This Google ™ translation feature provided on the Legislative Analyst's Office (LAO) website is for informational purposes only.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Detail/5133

The 2026-27 Budget: How to Use One-Time Revenue Improvements

Feb 20, 2026 - The 2026-27 Budget: How to Use One-Time Revenue Improvements The 2026-27 Budget How to Use One-Time Revenue Improvements Recent stock market performance continues to boost income tax collections. In our Fiscal Outlook , we strongly advised the Legislature to treat near-term strength in tax collections as temporary because we expect these gains to reverse.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5133

Oversight of certain public benefit artificial intelligence (AI) companies. [Ballot]

Jan 20, 2026 - The measure would have the following major fiscal effects: Increased state costs that would likely be in the tens of millions of dollars annually to establish and operate a new regulatory commission overseeing certain public benefit AI com panies.
https://lao.ca.gov/BallotAnalysis/Initiative/2025-033

The 2026-27 Budget: California Competes Extension

Mar 18, 2026 - Figure  3 shows how credits have been allocated across sectors over the last five years. Of the $1.2  billion in awards made between 2021 and 2025, around $650  million, or over half, has been allocated to businesses in advanced manufacturing.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5162

The 2026-27 Budget: Department of Developmental Services

Mar 13, 2026 - If so, how would DDS oversee this effort? How will DDS collaborate with DHCS in the coming months to ensure its planned processes are successful in exempting all eligible DDS consumers from the H.R. 1 eligibility requirements?
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5157

The 2026-27 Budget: In-Home Supportive Services

Mar 18, 2026 - We examine how these cost drivers have changed alongside policy changes in the program and the state overall. Taken together, these cost drivers account for much of the overall growth in the program.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5166

The 2026-27 Budget: Community College Facilities

Mar 17, 2026 - The measure does not specify how the funds are to be allocated among these specific purposes. In addition to this state bond, voters in the same election approved 14 local general oblig ation bonds totaling $9.9  billion for community college facilities.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5159