How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? [EconTax Blog]

Mar 9, 2026 - By most measures, the global financial crisis was more severe than the dot-com crash. The state 's unemployment rate, for example, peaked at 7 percent following the dot-com crash but reached nearly double that during the financial crisis and remained elevated for much longer.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/852

How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? [EconTax Blog]

Mar 9, 2026 - By most measures, the global financial crisis was more severe than the dot-com crash. The state 's unemployment rate, for example, peaked at 7 percent following the dot-com crash but reached nearly double that during the financial crisis and remained elevated for much longer.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/article/Detail/852

California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - After the dot-com bust and the Great Recession, it took four and five years, respectively, for revenues to recover. Incorporating revenue risk into the budget now, therefore, reflects prudence, not pessimism.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

A New Method For Current Year Revenue Forecasting [EconTax Blog]

Sep 20, 2021 - Perhaps monthly data simply is too “noisy ” (fluctuating because of random events) to offer useful prediction. Or maybe our statistical model fails to incorporate elements that affect the revenue outlook that can only be captured via application of deliberate professional judgment.  
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/696

The 2025-26 Budget: Partial Income Tax Exclusion for Military Retirement Income [EconTax Blog]

Feb 13, 2025 - If the Legislature simply wants to provide limited tax relief to veterans, that might also improve veterans ’ perceptions of the state, it could adopt the administration ’s proposal. If the Legislature instead prefers that this tax expenditure have a clear economic or fiscal rationale, it could reject the administration ’s proposal.  
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/article/Detail/820

The 2025-26 Budget: Partial Income Tax Exclusion for Military Retirement Income [EconTax Blog]

Feb 13, 2025 - If the Legislature simply wants to provide limited tax relief to veterans, that might also improve veterans ’ perceptions of the state, it could adopt the administration ’s proposal. If the Legislature instead prefers that this tax expenditure have a clear economic or fiscal rationale, it could reject the administration ’s proposal.  
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/820

Oversight of certain public benefit artificial intelligence (AI) companies. [Ballot]

Jan 20, 2026 - The measure would have the following major fiscal effects: Increased state costs that would likely be in the tens of millions of dollars annually to establish and operate a new regulatory commission overseeing certain public benefit AI com panies.
https://lao.ca.gov/BallotAnalysis/Initiative/2025-033

Assessing California’s Climate Policies—Cap-and-Trade Reauthorization

May 7, 2025 - Net reductions would occur in the non ‑covered sectors because it would not result in a trading of allowances that simply change the source of emissions, as such entities are not required to purchase allowances or comply with the cap.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5042

The 2026-27 Budget: Governor’s Sustainable Aviation Fuel Tax Credit Proposal

Feb 24, 2026 - To the extent this is the case, the policy would result in “shuffling, ” or replacing one lower carbon fuel with another rather than simply increasing overall use, thus limiting any net environmental benefits.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5139

An Update on California Competes [EconTax Blog]

Mar 10, 2023 - The study finds larger employment increases in neighborhoods with credit recipients but does not offer compelling evidence that this outcome was not simply a continuation of recent growth in those neighborhoods.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/771