EdBudget Figures
Related Figures
- Comparing Proposition 98 Guarantee Under Governor's Budget and May Revision
- Proposition 98 Funding Changes by Segment and Source
- Proposition 98 Key Inputs and Outcomes Under May Revision
- Proposition 98 Funding Per Student Under May Revision
- Proposition 98 Spending Proposals Under May Revision
- Comparing LAO and May Revision Estimates of the Proposition 98 Guarantee
May 2024
Proposition 98 Overview
LAO May Outlook Estimates of Proposition 98 Guarantee
Dollars in Millions
| 2022-23 | 2023-24 | 2024-25 | 2025-26 | 2026-27 | 2027-28 | |
| Minimum Guarantee | ||||||
| General Funda | $67,753 | $70,089 | $74,671 | $79,561 | $84,280 | $88,622 |
| Local property tax | 29,774 | 31,389 | 32,670 | 34,251 | 36,021 | 37,905 |
| Totals | $97,527 | $101,478 | $107,341 | $113,811 | $120,301 | $126,527 |
| Change From Prior Year | ||||||
| General Fund | -$16,001 | $2,336 | $4,581 | $4,890 | $4,719 | $4,342 |
| Percent change | -19.1% | 3.4% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.2% |
| Local property tax | $2,973 | $1,615 | $1,281 | $1,580 | $1,771 | $1,884 |
| Percent change | 11.1% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.2% |
| Total guarantee | -$13,027 | $3,952 | $5,862 | $6,470 | $6,490 | $6,226 |
| Percent change | -11.8% | 4.1% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.2% |
| Key Inputs | ||||||
| General Fund Tax Revenueb | $176,979 | $181,823 | $190,093 | $200,743 | $212,613 | $223,566 |
| K-12 average daily attendance | 5,405,197 | 5,468,503 | 5,508,796 | 5,524,772 | 5,444,110 | 5,367,892 |
| Growth Rates | ||||||
| K-12 average daily attendance | 1.0% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.3% | -1.5% | -1.4% |
| Per capita personal income (Test 2) | 7.6% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Per capita General Fund (Test 3)c | -18.7% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 5.5% |
| Operative Test | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Statutory COLA | 6.56% | 8.22% | 1.07% | 3.01% | 3.65% | 4.03% |
| a Beginning in 2024-25, includes adjustment for arts education funding as required by Proposition 28 (2022). | ||||||
| b Excludes nontax revenues and transfers, which do not affect the calculation of the guarantee. | ||||||
| c As set forth in the State Constitution, reflects change in per capita General Fund plus 0.5 percent. | ||||||
| COLA = cost-of-living adjustment. | ||||||
| Note: No maintenance factor is created or paid over the period. | ||||||