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February 18, 2004 - The U.S. and California economies are entering 2004 with significant momentum which we believe will continue through the budget year. The one major exception to the generally upbeat economic picture is employment growth, which continues to lag despite major gains in consumer and business spending and output in the economy. The lack of job growth has not held back the recovery so far, but continued softness in this key area could undermine consumer and business confidence, spending, and ultimately at some point in the future, the overall economic expansion.
February 18, 2004 - We discuss several of the most significant spending proposals in the budget including suspension of the Proposition 98 minimum education funding guarantee, fee increases in higher education, proposals intended to reduce expenditures for health and social services programs, criminal justice system reforms, and actions in transportation redirecting $2 billion to the General Fund.
February 18, 2004 - The Governor's budget proposes total spending in 2004-05 of $97.2 billion, including $76.1 billion from the state's General Fund and $21.1 billion from its special funds. We examine historical spending in relation to the state's economy, spending by program area, and spending adjusted for population and inflation.
February 18, 2004 - Our annual detailed examination of the Budget Bill based on the Governor's Budget. It includes hundreds of findings and recommendations related to education, health and social services, criminal justice, transportation, resources, capital outlay, information technology, and local government.
January 13, 2004 - We believe that the Governor's proposal provides a solid starting point for budget deliberations. It includes realistic revenue and caseload assumptions, as well as real and ongoing solutions from most areas of the budget. At the same time, however, it presents the Legislature with numerous policy issues and concerns. For example, its reductions would have far-reaching consequences for the scope of state services in a variety of program areas. Some of its proposals lack detail or have savings estimates that may not be achievable. And, even with the serious spending reductions it proposes in 2004-05 the plan does not fully address the state's ongoing budget problem—leaving a roughly $6 billion shortfall between expenditures and revenues in 2005-06.
November 20, 2003 - Handout presented to the Senate Budget and Fiscal Review Committee on November 20th, 2003.
November 19, 2003 - Handout presented to the Assembly Budget Committee on November 19th, 2003.
November 14, 2003 - According to our projections, the state is facing a year-end shortfall of $10.2 billion in 2004-05 assuming the vehicle license fee (VLF) rate increase remains in effect, and substantially more if the rate is rolled back and the state resumes backfill payments to localities. Over the longer term, absent corrective actions, the state faces annual current-law operating deficits that remain over $9 billion through the end of the forecast period—and $14 billion if the VLF rate is rolled back.
October 23, 2003 - The Legislature was faced with addressing an enormous two-year General Fund budget shortfall in developing the state's spending plan for 2003-04. We discuss the factors underlying this shortfall, describe the key actions taken to address it, and provide detail on the adopted budget package.
August 1, 2003 - The budget package, as passed by the Legislature, authorizes total spending of $98.9 billion. Of this amount, $70.8 billion is from the General Fund, $20.5 billion is from special funds, and $7.5 billion from bond funds. It addresses an enormous General Fund shortfall through a combination of program savings, borrowing, new revenues, funding shifts, and deferrals.
July 28, 2003 - Highlights of the Budget Bill as adopted by the Senate.
July 16, 2003 - Presented to the Senate Select Committee on Fiscal Restructuring
July 10, 2003 - Presented to Senate Select Committee on Fiscal Restructuring