February 11, 2016 - We review the Governor's 2016-17 budget proposals for (1) the Supplemental Security Income/State Supplementary Payment (SSI/SSP) program, (2) In-Home Supportive Services, (3) California Work Opportunity and Responsibility to Kids (CalWORKs), and (4) Foster Care. Further, we provide the Legislature with key issues to consider when evaluating the Governor's budget proposals.
November 16, 2016 - Under our current projections, assuming no changes in existing state and federal policies, we estimate the state will end the 2017-18 fiscal year with $11.5 billion in total reserves. This includes $8.7 billion in required reserves, which must be deposited into the rainy day fund, and $2.8 billion in discretionary reserves, which the Legislature can appropriate for any purpose. These reserve levels reflect the continued progress California has made in improving its budget situation. Our estimates include the effects of statewide ballot measures that were approved on November 8. The condition of the state budget depends on many volatile and unpredictable factors. This uncertainty is present in the near term and becomes greater in each subsequent year. We discuss two illustrative economic scenarios for the fiscal years after 2017-18. Under a mild recession scenario, the state would have enough reserves to cover its operating deficits through 2020-21. This means, under our assumptions, the state could weather a mild recession without cutting spending or raising taxes. However, this conclusion assumes that the state does not make any changes to its current policies and programs in any year during the outlook. This outlook also assumes no changes in federal policy, even though the recent election results suggest some such changes are now likely. State or federal policy changes could have a significant impact on the state's bottom line.
October 18, 2017 - Each year, our office publishes the California Spending Plan to summarize the annual state budget. This publication discusses the 2017‑18 Budget Act and other major budget actions approved in 2017. In general, it reflects budgetary actions that the Legislature has taken through September 2017. In some cases, as noted, we discuss budget actions approved by the Legislature after June 15, 2017. In late July, for example, the Legislature passed and the Governor approved, an extension of authority for the Air Resources Board to implement the state’s cap‑and‑trade program from 2020 to 2030.
October 2, 2018 - Each year, our office publishes the California Spending Plan to summarize the annual state budget. This publication discusses the 2018‑19 Budget Act and other major budget actions approved in 2018. This version reflects all budgetary legislation related to the 2018-19 Budget Act.
February 16, 2018 - In this report we provide a broad overview of the Governor's health and human services budget, highlighting major year-over-year changes. We then provide a more in-depth analysis of select programmatic areas.
February 12, 2015 - This report analyzes the Governor's 2015-16 human services budget proposals. First, we review major trends in human services programs since 2007-08 (the last state budget developed before the major recession) and find that total spending is up by 11 percent (in inflation-adjusted terms), with major changes in how programs are funded. Our report also analyzes the budgetary impacts and issues for the Legislature to consider given the uncertain legal status of new federal labor regulations affecting In-Home Supportive Services (IHSS) and the Department of Developmental Services. The report includes an analysis of the future of the state's developmental centers (DCs) and an analysis of the Governor's budget proposal to further reform the Community Care Licensing (CCL) program that oversees the licensing of child care, children's residential, and adult and senior care facilities. Finally, the report analyzes the Governor's budget proposal to implement 2 of 19 recommendations of a working group established by the Legislature to recommend reforms to the foster care system.
Proposed SSI/SSP figures corrected 3/11/15
February 27, 2017 - In this report we provide (1) background on the health care and Long‑Term Services and Supports (LTSS) issues that the Coordinated Care Initiative (CCI) was intended to address, (2) an update on the CCI’s results and challenges to date, (3) an assessment of the Governor’s elimination of the CCI and budget proposal to extend certain CCI components, and (4) options for the Legislature on how to move forward. As ending the In‑Home Supportive Services (IHSS) has major, and rather complex, implications for 1991 realignment, we include a technical appendix at the end of this report that provides an in‑depth analysis of these implications.
October 13, 2014 - The LAO’s annual California Spending Plan publication details the 2014-15 budget package, including legislative and gubernatorial actions through October 2014. (An initial version of this publication was released in early August 2014. This final version of the publication also reflects later legislative and gubernatorial actions concerning the budget.) The 2014-15 state spending plan includes large funding increases for schools and community colleges, makes targeted augmentations in other areas of the budget, and pays down several billion dollars in key liabilities. In particular, the budget package includes a plan to fully fund the teachers’ pension system within about 30 years.
November 19, 2014 - The 20th annual edition of the LAO's Fiscal Outlook—a look at possible state revenue and spending trends over the next five years—reflects anticipated progress in building budget reserves under the recently approved Proposition 2. Specifically, absent new budget commitments, we estimate the state would end 2015-16 with $4.2 billion in total reserves, $2 billion of which would result from Proposition 2's new reserve rules. A $4 billion reserve would mark significant progress for the state, but maintaining such a reserve in 2015-16 would mean little or no new spending commitments outside of Proposition 98, the funding formula for schools and community colleges. Our higher General Fund revenue estimates translate to $6.4 billion available in 2015-16 for the state's Proposition 98 priorities. The report also discusses choices facing the state in implementing Proposition 2, such as choices about which budgetary and retirement debts to repay with dedicated Proposition 2 funds over the next 15 years.
October 10, 2017 - Presented to: Senate Human Services Committee and Assembly Human Services Committee.
February 27, 2013 - The Governor's budget proposes $28.3 billion in expenditures from the General Fund for health and human services programs in 2013-14. This reflects a 3.4 percent increase for health programs and a 7.9 percent increase for human services programs over 2012-13 estimated expenditures. For the most part, the year-over-year budget changes reflect caseload changes, technical budget adjustments, and the implementation of previously enacted policy changes, as opposed to new policy proposals. In the report, we find that the budget does not reflect the fiscal impact of the proposed Medi-Cal expansion, nor does it reflect potential costs and savings related to various other provisions of federal health care reform. We find that the Governor's Medi-Cal budget proposal assumes General Fund savings that are subject to significant uncertainty. We also provide a status update on the transition of the Healthy Families Program enrollees to Medi-Cal, finding that the transition is generally proceeding as planned, with some delays. We discuss problems in the operation of the state's Developmental Centers (DCs) by the Department of Developmental Services, and recommend that oversight of the DCs be strengthened by the creation of an independent Office of the Inspector General. We discuss the recent major program changes to the California Work Opportunity and Responsibility to Kids (CalWORKs) that are reflected in the budget, and recommend that the Legislature augment CalWORKs employment services funding--a Governor's budget proposal--to a level of funding it deems appropriate in light of its priorities for the program. We raise various fiscal and policy concerns about the Governor's budget assumption that a 20 percent across-the-board reduction in In-Home Supportive Services service hours will be implemented beginning on November 1, 2013. In light of these concerns, we recommend that the Legislature repeal the 20 percent reduction and instead continue a 3.6 percent across-the-board reduction that would otherwise sunset at the end of the 2012-13 fiscal year.
February 22, 2019 - In this report, we evaluate the Governor's major human services budget proposals for programs administered by the Department of Social Services, including the California Work Opportunities and Responsibility to Kids (CalWORKs), the Supplemental Security Income/State Supplementary Payment (SSI/SSP), the In-Home Supportive Services (IHSS), and foster care.
February 26, 2024 - In this post, we analyze the Governor’s budget proposals relating to child welfare and foster care programs, which include a number of budget solutions. In addition, the post provides comments and questions to help the Legislature weigh in regarding the administration’s proposal for the statutorily required new foster care rates structure.
October 19, 2015 - Each year, the Legislative Analyst's Office publishes its Spending Plan publication to summarize the state's annual budget. Passed in June 2015, with various amendments later during the year's legislative session, the state's 2015-16 spending plan includes a large increase in funding for schools and community colleges. The budget makes augmentations to child care and preschool, higher education, and various health and human services programs. The plan also creates a new state earned income tax credit to increase the after-tax income of low-income workers.