January 13, 2017 - On January 10, 2017, the Governor presented his Proposition 98 budget package to the Legislature. In this post, we provide an overview and initial assessment of the package.
March 2, 2017 - Presented to: Senate Budget Subcommittee No. 1 on Education Finance
February 28, 2017 - Presented to: Assembly Budget Subcommittee No. 2 on Education Finance
June 2, 2017 - Presented to Budget Conference Committee
January 13, 2017 - This publication is our office’s initial response to the Governor's 2017-18 budget proposal. The administration's estimates anticipate slow growth in the personal income tax (PIT), the state’s dominant revenue source. The Governor’s estimate of PIT growth in 2017-18 is probably too low. As a result, by the May Revision, the state could have more General Fund revenue than the Governor now projects, but much of that revenue would be required to go to schools and Proposition 2 reserves and debt payments. Facing uncertainties we have long discussed about the economy and new uncertainties about changes to federal policy, the Legislature may want to set a target for total state reserves at—or preferably above—the level the Governor now proposes.
January 11, 2016 - This publication is our office’s initial response to the 2016-17 Governor’s Budget proposal. Estimates of state personal income taxes and required school funding are up significantly. In allocating discretionary resources in the 2016-17 budget, the Governor prioritizes growing state budget reserves. Specifically, he increases total reserves to more than $10 billion and also allocates a sizable portion of discretionary resources to one-time infrastructure spending. We encourage the Legislature, as it crafts this year’s budget in line with its own priorities, to begin with a robust target for reserves for the end of 2016-17 and to concentrate spending on one-time purposes. This would still leave some funds available for targeted ongoing commitments—particularly if the Legislature extends the managed care organization (MCO) tax. Such a measured approach would better position the state for any near-term economic downturn.
February 14, 2014 - This report analyzes the Governor's 2014-15 Proposition 98 budget proposals. The Governor’s 2014-15 budget includes $11.8 billion in Proposition 98 spending increases (attributable to 2012-13, 2013-14, and 2014-15). Of that amount, the Governor dedicates $6.7 billion to paying off outstanding one-time obligations and $5.1 billion for ongoing programmatic increases. We believe the Governor's plan is a reasonable mix of one-time and ongoing spending--eliminating the largest outstanding one-time obligation and significantly increasing ongoing programmatic support for schools and community colleges. The Governor's Proposition 98 wall of debt plan also includes a reasonable multiyear approach to paying off all outstanding school and community college obligations one year before the expiration of Proposition 30 revenues. Our report also analyzes the Governor's specific proposals for career technical education, student assessments, and independent study programs. Though we think these proposals generally have merit, we offer various recommendations for refining them.
March 7, 2017 - Presented to Assembly Budget Subcommittee No. 2 on Education Finance
May 16, 2016 - In this brief, we analyze the Governor’s Proposition 98 May Revision budget package. In the first section, we focus on changes in the overall Proposition 98 funding level under the May Revision compared to the Governor’s January budget. In the next three sections, we describe and assess the major changes in specific Proposition 98 proposals for K-12 education, early education, and the California Community Colleges (CCC), respectively.
April 20, 2017 - Presented to Senate Budget and Fiscal Review Subcommittee No. 1 on Education
January 13, 2017 - At key times during the state's budget cycle, we post tables containing important information about the education parts of the budget. This initial January posting reflects the 2017-18 Governor's Budget proposals. The tables cover Proposition 98, K-12 education, child care and preschool, higher education, and student financial aid. We will publish additional tables as we have them available.
May 14, 2018 - In this report, we analyze the 2018-19 May Revision education proposals. We first provide an overview of Proposition 98 funding and then focus on the Governor’s major proposals for K‑12 education, child care and preschool, community colleges, universities, and student financial aid. In the pages that follow, we offer many specific recommendations for the Legislature to consider. Our package of recommendations includes adopting some proposals, modifying others in certain ways, rejecting others but inviting better proposals next year, and rejecting some proposals in their entirety.
February 23, 2017 - Proposition 2 (2014) requires the state to make: (1) minimum annual payments toward certain eligible debts and (2) deposits into the state’s rainy day fund. This publication outlines alternatives to the Governor’s proposals that could free up General Fund resources. It also addresses whether the Legislature can access funds from state’s rainy day reserve under the measure’s budget emergency provisions.
May 18, 2015 - Presented to Assembly Budget Subcommittee No. 2 on Education Finance
May 18, 2015 - In this brief, we analyze the Governor’s Proposition 98 May Revision budget package for schools and the California Community Colleges (CCC). In the first section, we focus on the overall Proposition 98 funding level under the May Revision and the reasons it is higher than the Governor’s January budget. We then explain how our office’s higher revenue estimates would affect available Proposition 98 funding and recommend how the Legislature might budget accordingly. In the next two sections, we describe and assess the Governor’s major Proposition 98 May Revision proposals. The Appendix to the brief contains 16 figures that have detailed education budget data. Our February analysis contains additional information about Proposition 98 and calculations of the minimum guarantee.
November 15, 2017 - Proposition 98 (1988) establishes a minimum annual funding requirement for schools and community colleges. In this report, we (1) explain how our estimates of the minimum requirement have changed since the adoption of the June budget plan, (2) identify the new funding available in 2018-19, and (3) highlight a few key trends affecting schools and community colleges over the next four years.
This is part of a collection of material for The 2018-19 Budget: California’s Fiscal Outlook. See a complete list of this year's fiscal outlook material on our fiscal outlook budget page.