May 12, 2019 - Our office just released a summary of our updated state fiscal outlook for the May Revision. Our fiscal outlook is premised on a set of economic assumptions. While our November fiscal outlook included multiple economic scenarios, this update for May focuses on only one economic scenario: continuation of moderate economic growth.
May 12, 2018 - In this report, we discuss our new revenue outlook for the state, released as part of our response to the Governor's 2018-19 May Revision.
February 17, 2000 - Perspectives on the Economy and Demographics 2000-01
February 22, 1995 - Text only
February 27, 2012 - There are plenty of mixed signals in economic data for California’s policymakers, as they continue to craft state and local budgets in a constrained fiscal environment. The economy now is clearly improving in many important ways, including employment growth, but significant impediments block the state’s path to a more robust economic recovery. Like the economic data, reports concerning state revenues have been mixed recently too, with weakness in income tax payments accompanied by speculation concerning a future bonanza of tax revenues due to the possible offering of stock by Facebook, Inc. This report provides our updated projections concerning these and other trends in the economy and state revenues.
February 21, 1996 - Perspectives on the Economy and Demographics 1996-97
February 21, 2007 - For 2007, like most other economists at this time, we forecast that growth will continue but be modest for the nation and California. For the year as whole, 2007 growth will be somewhat less than it was in 2006, with the first half of the year the weakest. Throughout the year, however, growth should accelerate, as the housing sector stabilizes, especially in the second half of 2007. We expect that the state’s performance will generally be similar to the nation’s.
November 15, 2017 - The near-term budget outlook is positive. Under our current estimates, the state would have $19.3 billion in total reserves (including $7.5 billion in discretionary reserves) at the end of 2018-19, assuming the Legislature makes no additional budget commitments. The Legislature can use discretionary resources to build more budget reserves, increase spending, and/or reduce taxes. We also estimate the Legislature will have $5.3 billion in uncommitted school and community college (Proposition 98) funds to allocate in 2018-19. We provide more detail on our estimates of Proposition 98 funding in a separate report accompanying this outlook. The state has made significant progress in preparing for the next recession. To assess the longer-term budget outlook, we present two illustrative economic scenarios for fiscal years after 2018-19. Under a moderate recession scenario, the state has enough reserves to cover its deficits until 2021-22, assuming the Legislature makes no additional budget commitments. Additional budget commitments in the near term could cause the state to exhaust its reserves earlier in the next recession
This year, our Fiscal Outlook includes this report and a collection of other fiscal outlook material on our fiscal outlook budget page.
February 19, 1997 - Perspectives on the Economy and Demographics 1997-98
May 12, 2019 - This post details our General Fund revenue outlook for 2017‑18 through 2022‑23. Our estimates of General Fund revenues and transfers for the “budget window”—2017‑18 through 2019‑20—are $774 million (0.2 percent) above the administration’s May 2019 revenue forecast.