Fiscal Outlook: Estimating Home Prices [EconTax Blog]

Nov 14, 2018 - Home price growth is an important driver of growth in local property tax collections. Prices also can affect revenues from major state taxes, particularly the personal income tax and sales tax. In general, higher home prices mean more tax revenues for state and local governments.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/322

Fiscal Outlook: Estimating New Construction [EconTax Blog]

Nov 14, 2018 - New construction is a key driver of growth in assessed property values and, in turn, property tax revenue . More construction leads to higher assessed values. Below we discuss the details of our residential and commercial construction estimates used for our assessed value forecast.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/323

Fiscal Outlook: Estimating Wages and Salaries [EconTax Blog]

Nov 14, 2018 - The single largest source of General Fund revenue is the personal income tax (PIT). In order to estimate PIT revenue for our Fiscal Outlook publication, we must also make a projection of wage and salary income.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/321

Fiscal Outlook: Estimating Capital Gains Revenue [EconTax Blog]

Nov 14, 2018 - Consequently, capital gains earned by higher-income filers are taxed at higher rates. We estimate the income distribution using historical data on filings from the Franchise Tax Board and apply effective tax rates (liability as a fraction of taxable income after deductions) to income   based on recent patterns.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/319

Fiscal Outlook: In-Home Supportive Services (IHSS)

Nov 14, 2018 - For further discussion of the MCO tax, please reference the “Medi-Cal ” Fiscal Outlook online post. Administration Scheduled to Release Report of 1991 Realignment and IHSS County Costs. In 2017 ‑18, a new IHSS county maintenance ‑of ‑effort (MOE) —referred to as the 2017 IHSS MOE —was established.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3899

The 2019-20 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 14, 2018 - With respect to these formulas, we assume: Sales Tax Reductions Are Not Triggered. California has two statutes that trigger reductions in the state ’s sales tax rate if balances in discretionary reserves reach a certain threshold.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3896

Fiscal Outlook: Medi-Cal

Nov 14, 2018 - Expiration of Managed Care Organization (MCO) Tax Current MCO Tax. Since 2016-17, the state has imposed a per-member tax on Medi-Cal and non-Medi-Cal MCOs. Revenues from the MCO tax, which leverages federal funding for Medi-Cal, provide a substantial General Fund offset in Medi-Cal.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3898

Evolution of the Balance of the Budget Stabilization Account

Nov 14, 2018 - Under Proposition  2, the state must make deposits into the BSA until its balance reaches a threshold of 10  percent of General Fund taxes. Each year that General Fund tax revenues grow, this 10  percent threshold also grows.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3900

The 2019-20 Budget: Proposition 98 Outlook

Nov 14, 2018 - Over the past several years, school district attendance has decreased in many parts of the state, including the Bay Area and portions of northern California, with more pronounced declines in Los Angeles County and Orange County.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3897

Transportation and high-speed rail. [Ballot]

Nov 14, 2018 - License Fee and Sales Tax Special Fund Revenues. Currently, nearly all revenues from vehicle license fees (another annual tax paid by vehicle owners) as well as revenues from portions of the sales tax (including on vehicle and fuel purchases) pay for certain county-administered health, human services, and public safety programs.
https://lao.ca.gov/BallotAnalysis/Initiative/2018-010