Fiscal Outlook: In-Home Supportive Services (IHSS)

Nov 14, 2018 - This, in part, may be due to IHSS service hours being temporarily reduced in some years and restored in others, resulting in IHSS service hours fluctuating by a greater amount year to year relative to average growth trends.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3899

The 2019-20 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 14, 2018 - In this scenario, we assume a recession begins in the third quarter of calendar year 2020, based on Moody ’s Analytics “moderate ” recession scenario. (This scenario is not based on a recent historical example, but rather a model of one possible recession scenario that Moody ’s believes could materialize in the coming years.)
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3896

Fiscal Outlook: Medi-Cal

Nov 14, 2018 - As a result, growth in year-over-year spending is projected to be slower in the final years of our outlook than the elevated growth in the earlier years. MCO Tax. We project that the expiration of the MCO tax will increase General Fund spending in Medi-Cal to almost $1.9  billion annually by 2020-21.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3898

Evolution of the Balance of the Budget Stabilization Account

Nov 14, 2018 - Each year that General Fund tax revenues grow, this 10  percent threshold also grows. As such, in each of these years, the state is required to make deposits into the BSA to bring the fund to the revised estimate of 10  percent of General Fund taxes.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3900

The 2019-20 Budget: Proposition 98 Outlook [Publication Details]

Nov 14, 2018 - In this report, we examine how the minimum guarantee might change over the next several years and discuss the factors likely to be driving those changes. We then examine key aspects of district budgets—focusing on the main cost pressures facing districts over the next several years.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Detail/3897

The 2019-20 Budget: Proposition 98 Outlook

Nov 14, 2018 - After 2020 ‑21, CalSTRS can increase or decrease the district rate by up to 1  p ercentage point per year, provided the total district rate does not exceed 20. 25  p ercent.  Under CalSTRS ’ current projections, the district rate would drop to 18. 2  p ercent for 2021 ‑22 and 2022 ‑23.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3897

Transportation and high-speed rail. [Ballot]

Nov 14, 2018 - For instance, Proposition  98 (1988) requires the Legislature to provide schools and community colleges a minimum level of funding each year (commonly referred to as the “Proposition  98 minimum guarantee ”).
https://lao.ca.gov/BallotAnalysis/Initiative/2018-010

Fiscal Outlook: Medi-Cal [Publication Details]

Nov 14, 2018 - Fiscal Outlook: Medi-Cal [Publication Details] HTML Description: This web post provides detail on our projections and assumptions related to General Fund spending in Medi-Cal for the years 2018-19 through 2022-23.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Detail/3898

The 2019-20 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook [Publication Details]

Nov 14, 2018 - Under our economic growth scenario, the state would have operating surpluses averaging around $4.5 billion per year (but declining over time). Under our recession scenario, the state would have enough reserves to cover a budget problem—provided the Legislature used all of the available resources in 2019-20 to build more reserves.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Detail/3896

October 2018 State Tax Collections [EconTax Blog]

Nov 13, 2018 - October withholding is 11 percent higher than withholding during the same period last year. (This includes the $1.3 billion that will be counted towards November collections and therefore is not included in the figure above.)
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/324