2021-22 “Big Three” Revenue Outlook Update: September 2021 [EconTax Blog]

Sep 20, 2021 - We currently project that there is a strong chance that collections from the state ’s “big three ” taxes —personal income, sales, and corporation taxes —will exceed the budget act assumption of $170 billion in 2021-22.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/698

What Do Unanticipated Revenues Mean for the Surplus? [EconTax Blog]

Sep 20, 2021 - The formulas vary substantially based on the amount of personal income tax revenues attributable to capital gains that the state collects. These revenues can vary substantially from year to year, making it difficult to predict the impact on the formulas.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/697

A New Method For Current Year Revenue Forecasting [EconTax Blog]

Sep 20, 2021 - To fill this void, our office recently developed a model to provide a monthly update of the forecast of current year collections from the state ’s “big three ” revenues (personal income, sales, and corporation taxes).
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/696

U.S. Retail Sales Update: August 2021 [EconTax Blog]

Sep 17, 2021 - U.S. retail sales (seasonally adjusted) grew 0.7 percent from July to August. Retail sales remain elevated due to dramatic growth in January and March.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/694

Building Permits Update: July 2021 [EconTax Blog]

Sep 7, 2021 - Los Angeles County permitted 1,765 units, but no other metro area had as many as 500. Nonresidential construction permit remains historically weak, and July ’s total of $937 million was the single lowest monthly figure since 2012, when the state ’s economy was far smaller and the price level lower.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/693

Income Tax Withholding Tracker: August 1 - August 27 [EconTax Blog]

Sep 7, 2021 - Income Tax Withholding Tracker: August 1 - August 27 [EconTax Blog] Income Tax Withholding Tracker: August 1 - August 27 September 7, 2021 Brian Uhler Bottom Line: California income tax withholding collections in August through the 27th were 19.7 percent above August 2020, and collections to date in fiscal year 2021-22 were 20.2 percent above 2020-21.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/692

MOU Fiscal Analysis: Bargaining Unit 8 (Firefighters)

Sep 7, 2021 - Of the 20 local jurisdictions included, 16 are cities, 2 are counties, and 2 are fire districts. The study compared four state classifications with local counterparts: Firefighter II, Fire Apparatus Engineer, Fire Captain (Range A), and Battalion Chief.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4451

Psilocybin legalization. [Ballot]

Sep 1, 2021 - The measure would reduce ongoing costs to the state and local governments by reducing the number of people convicted of psilocybin offenses incarcerated in state prison and county jail, as well as the number placed under community supervision (such as county probation).
https://lao.ca.gov/BallotAnalysis/Initiative/2021-005

K-12 Funding by Source [EdBudget]

Aug 31, 2021 - This reduction is more than offset by (1) approximately $1.4 billion in one-time funding for various infrastructure improvements and (2) baseline increases in state pension costs and debt service on school facility bonds. c Includes revenue from property taxes collected in excess of the Local Control Funding Formula allotments, parcel taxes, fees, and local
https://lao.ca.gov/Education/EdBudget/Details/545

The 2021-22 California Spending Plan: The State Appropriations Limit [Publication Details]

Aug 30, 2021 - This post describes the legislative and administrative decisions regarding the State Appropriations Limit (SAL) in the 2021‑22 budget process.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Detail/4449