2020-21 Fiscal Outlook: Recent Job Losses Concentrated Among Childless Workers, Dampening Caseload Growth [EconTax Blog]

Dec 8, 2020 - Specifically, while workers under 25 years old represent 11 percent of the state ’s overall workforce, these workers account for 24 percent of recent job losses. These younger workers are less likely to have children than older workers —6 percent of workers under 25 years old are parents, whereas almost half of workers over 25 years old are parents.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/591

COVID-19 and the Labor Market: Who Are California's Frontline and Remote Workers? [EconTax Blog]

Dec 8, 2020 - At the same time, very few workers with lower education levels work in jobs that likely can be done remotely: fewer than 10 percent of workers with no high school diploma work in jobs that can be done remotely.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/article/Detail/593

COVID-19 and the Labor Market: Who Are California's Frontline and Remote Workers? [EconTax Blog]

Dec 8, 2020 - At the same time, very few workers with lower education levels work in jobs that likely can be done remotely: fewer than 10 percent of workers with no high school diploma work in jobs that can be done remotely.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/593

The 2021-22 Budget: CalWORKs Fiscal Outlook

Dec 8, 2020 - We Project Further Increases in Out ‑Years. We project caseload to peak in 2022 ‑23, consistent with historic evidence suggesting caseload peaks roughly two years after peak unemployment. We further project caseload to remain above pre ‑pandemic levels through at least 2024 ‑25.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4306

November 2020 Cap-and-Trade Auction Update [EconTax Blog]

Dec 4, 2020 - The remaining $164 million in revenues will be available for new discretionary program spending, either in the current year or in future years. (The enacted 2020-21 budget package does not include a detailed discretionary expenditure plan.)
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/588

With New Deficits Looming, California Will Weigh its Options for Allocating a Large Revenue Windfall

Dec 1, 2020 - Looking ahead, however, we also identify the emergence of a new ongoing deficit beginning in the budget year (2021‑22). This fiscal gap persists and widens through the remainder of our outlook period (2024‑25).
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4305

Cannabis Tax Revenue Update [EconTax Blog]

Nov 30, 2020 - The administration ’s current estimates include large upward revisions for fiscal year 2019-20 —especially the fourth quarter of the fiscal year (April through June). In particular, the administration revised its estimate from $477 million to $522 million.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/583

Income Tax Withholding Tracker: November 16 - November 20 [EconTax Blog]

Nov 20, 2020 - The final graph shows the year over year changes in cumulative withholding for California in 2020, the United States in 2020 (from the federal income tax), and California in 2009 at the trough of the Great Recession.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/584

The 2021-22 Budget: State Correctional Population Outlook

Nov 19, 2020 - In total, we project that employee compensation costs will increase by roughly $2. 5  b illion between 2020 ‑21 and 2024 ‑25. Accordingly, the reduction in population ‑related costs will result in CDCR ’s budget growing by only around $ 1  b illion by 2024 ‑25.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4304?utm_source=laowww&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=4304

The 2021-22 Budget: State Correctional Population Outlook

Nov 19, 2020 - In total, we project that employee compensation costs will increase by roughly $2. 5  b illion between 2020 ‑21 and 2024 ‑25. Accordingly, the reduction in population ‑related costs will result in CDCR ’s budget growing by only around $ 1  b illion by 2024 ‑25.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4304