California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - The added risk variable weighs on the range of revenue outcomes that we view as most plausible. The middle of the range, which becomes our main revenue forecast, is thus lower than if we did not include the stock market risk indicator.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

The 2012-13 Budget: Economic and Revenue Update [Publication Details]

Feb 27, 2012 - Like the economic data, reports concerning state revenues have been mixed recently too, with weakness in income tax payments accompanied by speculation concerning a future bonanza of tax revenues due to the possible offering of stock by Facebook, Inc.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Detail/2578

The 2025-26 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 20, 2024 - Outside of government and health care, the state has added no jobs in a year and a half. Similarly, the number of Californians who are unemployed is 25  percent higher than during the strong labor markets of 2019 and 2022.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4939

The 2025-26 Budget: Overview of the Spending Plan

Oct 16, 2025 - During the special session, the Legislature added Control Sections 90.00 and 90.01 to the 2024 ‑25 Budget Act providing up to $2.5  billion one ‑time for response and recovery costs related to the January 2025 Southern California wildfires.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5079

COVID-19 and California’s Evolving Fiscal Outlook

Mar 18, 2020 - The last couple of weeks and days have seen a sharp pullback in financial markets and economic activity. Earlier revenue estimates now clearly require downward revision, though it is premature to say by how much.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4203

The 2023-24 Budget: Multiyear Assessment

Feb 15, 2023 - None of these levels—both on the revenue and spending side—are consistent with shortfalls seen during recessions. Because Recent Budgets Focused on One ‑Time and Temporary Spending, Ongoing Spending Level Is Still Sustainable.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4687

The 2017-18 Budget: California Spending Plan

Oct 18, 2017 - (As seen in Step Two above, prior to 2017 ‑18, sales tax growth paid prior year cost increases.) This sales tax payment acceleration will be ongoing. Despite Additional Revenue, Counties Will Face Some Costs.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3694/8

California's Legislative Analyst's Office and the Value of Independence

Nov 15, 2024 - As such, our independent fiscal assessment underlies the Legislature ’s ability to assert an informed check on the executive branch, making any added complexity from diverging estimates a worthwhile trade-off.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4938

The 2019-20 May Revision: LAO Economic Outlook

May 12, 2019 - After dipping significantly at the end of 2018, stock prices now have nearly rebounded to the historically high levels seen in the fall of 2018. Some signs suggest that stocks, at current prices, are somewhat overvalued.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4036

The 2025-26 Budget: Initial Comments on the Governor's May Revision

May 17, 2025 - Finally, although we have not previously recommended the Leg islature take decisive action to address the structural deficits, the state ’s persistent fiscal imbalance and the added downside risks —particularly from potential federal actions —suggest a need for a more proactive approach.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5044