How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? [EconTax Blog]

Mar 9, 2026 - The state 's unemployment rate, for example, peaked at 7 percent following the dot-com crash but reached nearly double that during the financial crisis and remained elevated for much longer. Yet the dot-com bubble hit California revenues worse because the bubble was concentrated in technology companies headquartered here.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/852

How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? [EconTax Blog]

Mar 9, 2026 - The state 's unemployment rate, for example, peaked at 7 percent following the dot-com crash but reached nearly double that during the financial crisis and remained elevated for much longer. Yet the dot-com bubble hit California revenues worse because the bubble was concentrated in technology companies headquartered here.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/article/Detail/852

Frequently asked questions concerning Facebook and California's General Fund

Aug 1, 2012 - Frequently asked questions concerning Facebook and California's General Fund Frequently asked questions concerning Facebook and California's General Fund Program: Revenues Finding or Recommendation: This item lists answers to frequently asked questions concerning Facebook's stock and California's General Fund budget for 2012-13.
https://lao.ca.gov/Recommendations/Details/618

LAO commentary on Facebook IPO and state revenue forecasts

May 15, 2012 - State tax revenue estimates regarding Facebook, therefore, require numerous assumptions. Because of these factors, there is a large margin of error surrounding both our Facebook revenue estimates and those of the administration.
https://lao.ca.gov/Recommendations/Details/596

Summary of LAO Findings and Recommendations on the 2012-13 Budget

Essentially, to avoid “double counting ” the Facebook income, this means that both of our revenue estimates consider the economy without Facebook and then add PIT revenues on top of those estimates to account for the IPO.
https://lao.ca.gov/laoapp/budgetlist/PublicSearch.aspx?PolicyAreaNum=70&KeyCol=596&Yr=2012

Background information on LAO's May 2012 economic and revenue forecasts

May 18, 2012 - Figure 6 compares the LAO May 2012 revenue estimate related to the Facebook IPO with those in other recent forecasts. The IPO was announced in February and thus was not included in the Governor ’s January 2012 forecast. ( Additional information on our May 2012 Facebook IPO revenue forecast was published on this website on May 15.)
https://lao.ca.gov/Recommendations/Details/599

The 2026-27 Budget: California Competes Extension

Mar 18, 2026 - Second, any unawarded credits from the previous fiscal year can be added to the pool of available credits for the current fiscal year. Credit Pool Has Ballooned to over $923  million for the Current Year.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5162

Fiscal Outlook: Estimating Wages and Salaries [EconTax Blog]

Nov 14, 2018 - Job growth overall is expected to slow as the economy reaches full employment. We except job growth in two industry sectors, however, to continue expanding above 2 percent annually, a relatively strong rate.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/321

California’s relationship with the United States of America. [Ballot]

Sep 30, 2025 - For example, this measure could be found by courts t o be unconstitutional, either: (1)  preventing it from ever reaching the ballot or (2)  invalidating it in whole or in part if voters approved it at an election.
https://lao.ca.gov/BallotAnalysis/Initiative/2025-010

California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - The added risk variable weighs on the range of revenue outcomes that we view as most plausible. The middle of the range, which becomes our main revenue forecast, is thus lower than if we did not include the stock market risk indicator.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104