California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - The added risk variable weighs on the range of revenue outcomes that we view as most plausible. The middle of the range, which becomes our main revenue forecast, is thus lower than if we did not include the stock market risk indicator.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

The 2025-26 Budget: Overview of the Spending Plan

Oct 16, 2025 - During the special session, the Legislature added Control Sections 90.00 and 90.01 to the 2024 ‑25 Budget Act providing up to $2.5  billion one ‑time for response and recovery costs related to the January 2025 Southern California wildfires.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5079

The 2016-17 Budget: The Governor’s Proposition 2 Debt Proposal - The 2016-17 Budget: The Governor’s Proposition 2 Debt Proposal [Video]

To view this video please enable JavaScript, and consider upgrading to a web browser that supports HTML5 video The 2016-17 Budget: The Governor’s Proposition 2 Debt Proposal February 24, 2016 Watch it on YouTube .
https://lao.ca.gov/Videos/Player?playlistId=101

The 2026-27 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 12, 2026 - Several historically reliable signs suggest the stock market is overheated and at high risk of reversing course into a downturn in the next year or so. Should a stock market downturn occur, income tax revenues would fall considerably.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5101

The 2016-17 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook - California's Fiscal Outlook [Video]

View  this video on   YouTube . Video Selection California 's Fiscal Outlook Subscribe | California State Legislature | Online Voter Registration | Privacy Policy | Accessibility Legislative Analyst's Office | The California Legislature's Nonpartisan Fiscal and Policy Advisor 925 L Street, Suite 1000 Sacramento, CA 95814 | (916) 445-4656
https://lao.ca.gov/Videos/Player?playlistId=95

The 2025-26 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 20, 2024 - Overall, without more positive signs from the broader California economy, it is difficult to be highly confident in the recent revenue recovery. Possible Paths to a Broader Economic Recovery. Over the coming months, if California ’s labor market and consumers begin to show signs of a broadening recovery, the state ’s fiscal position is likely to be on better footing.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4939

The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - In the past, these patterns have been a sign that a stock market downturn will occur in the next couple of years. There certainly is some chance that this time is different and such a downturn is not forthcoming.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

The 2026-27 Budget: How to Use One-Time Revenue Improvements

Feb 20, 2026 - For example, we recommend the Legislature: Do Not Suspend the $3  Billion True Up Into the Budget Stabilization Account (BSA). The Governor ’s budget proposes suspending a roughly $3  billion true-up deposit that otherwise would be required in 2025-26.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5133

The 2016-17 Budget: California Spending Plan

Oct 5, 2016 - Subsequent changes made after the budget bill was signed by the Governor will likely result in higher reserves than those assumed in the budget package. Budget Package Signed by Governor. The Governor signed the 2016 –17 Budget Act and other budget –related bills on June  27, 2016; July  1, 2016; September  13, 2016; and September  14, 2016.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3487/2

The 2017-18 Budget: California Spending Plan

Oct 18, 2017 - Budget Package Signed by Governor. The Governor signed the 2017 ‑18 Budget Act and other budget ‑related bills between June  27, 2017 and September  28, 2017. These bills are detailed in Figure  5. The Governor did not veto any appropriations in the 2017 ‑18 Budget Act .
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3694/2