California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - After the dot-com bust and the Great Recession, it took four and five years, respectively, for revenues to recover. Incorporating revenue risk into the budget now, therefore, reflects prudence, not pessimism.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - If our estimates hold, the Legislature will face a fourth consecutive year of budget problems —all during a period of overall revenue growth . As it stands —with larger forecasted deficits and many fewer tools available to address them —California ’s budget is undeniably less prepared for downturns.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

The 2023-24 Budget: Multiyear Assessment

Feb 15, 2023 - Three of those —the recession in the early 1990s, the dot ‑com bust in the early 2000s, and the Great Recession —resulted in large revenue shortfalls and ensuing multiyear deficits, even for some years after each recession ended.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4687

Whether or Not to Tap Reserves to Solve Estimated Budget Problem Emerges as Key Fiscal Decision Facing California’s Legislature

Apr 19, 2023 - Other downturns, such as the 2001 so-called dot-com recession, had severe fiscal implications while inflicting somewhat milder economic damage. The 2008 Great Recession had brutal effects on both the state ’s economy and budget.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4762

Rethinking California's Reserve Policy

Apr 10, 2025 - In March of 2004, on the heels of the dot ‑com bust, voters passed Proposition  58, which created the Budget Stabilization Account (BSA). In the 2006 ‑07 budget, the Legislature deposited $472  million into the BSA and in 2007 ‑08 deposited $1.5  billion.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5028

Building Reserves to Prepare for a Recession

Mar 7, 2018 - By most measures, the recession of the early 1990s was more severe than the dot ‑com bust in the early 2000s. For example, unemployment in California reached 9. 7  p ercent in mid ‑ to late ‑1992, but peaked at 6. 9  p ercent after the dot ‑com bust.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3769

Strong Tax Collections Belie California's Challenging Fiscal Outlook

Apr 26, 2022 - When this gap shrinks or inverts, however, it suggests bond investors anticipate that in the future, the Fed will be holding interest rates low due to a weaker economy. As a result, increased yields on short-term Treasury notes, reflecting the Fed ’s efforts to head off inflation, can approach or exceed the yield on longer-term notes.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4590

The 2018-19 Budget: California Spending Plan (Final Version)

Oct 2, 2018 - Permanently Extends Regional Market Rate (RMR) Hold Harmless Provision. The budget provides $ 14  m illion ($ 13  m illion non ‑Proposition  98 General Fund and $ 1  m illion federal funds) to permanently extend the RMR hold harmless provision so that no provider moving forward receives less than it received on January 1, 2018.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3870/4

The 2023-24 Budget: State Appropriations Limit Estimates

Feb 1, 2023 - We still expect this long-term dynamic will hold. In fact, under our estimates of the Governor’s budget revenue projections, room under the limit would decline to nearly zero in the coming years. As such, we continue to expect the SAL to be a long-term budget consideration for the Legislature.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4667

The 2018-19 May Revision: LAO Revenue Outlook

May 12, 2018 - (Corporations previously avoided paying federal tax on these profits by holding them overseas.) Once this one-time tax is paid, corporations may bring these profits back to the U.S. any time (without paying any additional federal taxes).
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3830