California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - After the dot-com bust and the Great Recession, it took four and five years, respectively, for revenues to recover. Incorporating revenue risk into the budget now, therefore, reflects prudence, not pessimism.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - For California, the dot ‑com era —when stocks rose and then fell precipitously in response to widespread adoption of the internet —offers the most salient example. The internet has proven to be a transformative technology and, yet, the stock market ’s initial reaction was clearly overly exuberant.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

Proposed Reserves in the Governor’s May Revision

May 17, 2016 - Since the Governor released his budget proposal in January, the administration has revised its estimate of personal income taxes resulting from capital gains income in 2015 through 2017. This results in lower BSA deposit estimates for 2015-16 and 2016-17.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3463

Fiscal Outlook Supplement on Proposition 2: Overview

Dec 2, 2015 - Estimated $5.9 Billion Proposition 2 Requirement in 2015-16. Our current estimate of the 2015-16 Proposition 2 requirement includes debt payments and an initial deposit made in the June 2015 budget plan, and a true up deposit that will be made in the 2016-17 budget.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3313

The 2016-17 Budget: California Spending Plan

Oct 5, 2016 - High –Speed Rail Authority (HSRA) The budget plan includes total expenditures of $1.7  billion for HSRA, roughly $1  billion above the level of expenditures in 2015 –16 . The increase primarily reflects the shifting of some HSRA workload and expenditures initially assumed to occur in 2015 –16 .
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3487/9

The 2015-16 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget [Publication Details]

Jan 13, 2015 - The 2015-16 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget [Publication Details] Overview of the Governor 's Budget January 13, 2015 The 2015-16 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget Format: HTML Description: In the Governor's 2015-16 budget proposal, the administration raises its revenue estimates, and this results in a
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Detail/3157

The 2015-16 Budget: The Governor's Proposition 2 Proposal [Publication Details]

Mar 25, 2015 - The 2015-16 Budget: The Governor's Proposition 2 Proposal [Publication Details] The 2015-16 Budget: The Governor's Proposition 2 Proposal Format: HTML Description: Proposition 2—approved by the voters in November 2014—places formulas into the State Constitution that determine the minimum amount of debt payments and budget reserve deposits to be made in a fiscal year.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Detail/3226

The 2016-17 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 18, 2015 - Although the funding included in the 2015 –16 budget assumed an October 2015 implementation start date, at the time of this publication, it is unclear whether delayed implementation to February 2016 would result in one –time General Fund savings in 2015 –16 .
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3305

The 2015-16 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook [Publication Details]

Nov 19, 2014 - Specifically, absent new budget commitments, we estimate the state would end 2015-16 with $4.2 billion in total reserves, $2 billion of which would result from Proposition 2's new reserve rules. A $4 billion reserve would mark significant progress for the state, but maintaining such a reserve in 2015-16 would mean little or no new spending commitments outside of Proposition 98, the funding formula for schools and community colleges.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Detail/3152

The 2016-17 Budget: California Spending Plan

Oct 5, 2016 - As shown in the figure, the budget at that time assumed total state spending of $167.1  billion (not including federal and bond funds), an increase of 3.2  percent over revised totals for 2015 –16 . General Fund spending in the budget package is $122.5   billion —an increase of $6.9  billion, or 6  percent, over the revised 2015 –16 level.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3487