California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - The current discrepancy over the size of the state ’s budget deficit —$18  billion under the Legislative Analyst ’s Office estimate versus $3  billion in the Governor ’s budget —fits squarely within that pattern.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? [EconTax Blog]

Mar 9, 2026 - By most measures, the global financial crisis was more severe than the dot-com crash. The state 's unemployment rate, for example, peaked at 7 percent following the dot-com crash but reached nearly double that during the financial crisis and remained elevated for much longer.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/852

How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? [EconTax Blog]

Mar 9, 2026 - By most measures, the global financial crisis was more severe than the dot-com crash. The state 's unemployment rate, for example, peaked at 7 percent following the dot-com crash but reached nearly double that during the financial crisis and remained elevated for much longer.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/article/Detail/852

The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - For California, the dot ‑com era —when stocks rose and then fell precipitously in response to widespread adoption of the internet —offers the most salient example. The internet has proven to be a transformative technology and, yet, the stock market ’s initial reaction was clearly overly exuberant.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

Oversight of certain public benefit artificial intelligence (AI) companies. [Ballot]

Jan 20, 2026 - The measure would have the following major fiscal effects: Increased state costs that would likely be in the tens of millions of dollars annually to establish and operate a new regulatory commission overseeing certain public benefit AI com panies.
https://lao.ca.gov/BallotAnalysis/Initiative/2025-033

Building Reserves to Prepare for a Recession

Mar 7, 2018 - The administration currently estimates a very small “true down ” to the BSA in 2017 ‑18, although that may change at the time of the May Revision. (We believe there is significant upside to the administration ’s 2017 ‑ 18 r evenue estimates, which would result in a required true up deposit.)
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3769

^[PDF] CalWORKs Program Overview Hearing

CalWORKs Program Overview Hearing Moving Toward Self-Sufficiency: Allowable Activities LAO 60 YEARS OF SERVICE L E G I S L A T I V E A N A L Y S T ’ S O F F I C E March 9, 2005 3 " One-Parent Family: A family is eligible for the one-parent com- ponent of the program if it includes a child who is financially needy due to the death, incapacity, or continued absence of one or both
https://lao.ca.gov/handouts/socservices/2005/CalWORKs_program_030905.pdf

Home Price Update: October 2021 [EconTax Blog]

Nov 18, 2021 - Previous recessions have had disparate effects on home prices: they were largely unaffected by the collapse of the dot-com bubble in 2001, while in the late 2000s the collapse of the housing bubble was the single biggest factor that led to the financial crisis.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/714

^[PDF] HMOs and Rural California

In preparing this report, we obtained infor- mation from a variety of sources: ➢ We conducted interviews with repre- sentatives of a diverse set of key players in the rural health care com- munity, including beneficiaries, health operated health care systems, the California Medical Association, health policy researchers, state health care programs such as the Medi-Cal Program and
https://lao.ca.gov/2002/hmos_rural_ca/8-02_hmos_rural_ca.pdf

^[PDF] Fiscal Implications for the 1115 Waiver Renewal

State’s Fiscal Outlook and Medi-Cal Growth Projections 2L E G I S L A T I V E A N A L Y S T ’ S O F F I C E November 18, 2009  Overall state and federal Medi-Cal spending in 2008-09 is estimated at about $38 billion, including expenditures in the Department of Health Care Services (DHCS) as well as com- ponents of Medi-Cal administered by the Department of
https://lao.ca.gov/handouts/Health/2009/Fiscal_Implications_11_18_09.pdf