California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - Second, the Governor proposed suspending a $2.8  billion true-up deposit to the state ’s reserve that otherwise would be required. This proposal helps balance the budget but runs counter to the basic fiscal logic that stronger-than-expected revenues should be used to build reserves.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

Building Reserves to Prepare for a Recession

Mar 7, 2018 - To put this in more concrete but very rough terms, a moderate recession, like the dot ‑com bust, could lead to a $ 40  b illion budget problem. A more mild recession might result in a $ 20  b illion budget problem.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3769

The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - For California, the dot ‑com era —when stocks rose and then fell precipitously in response to widespread adoption of the internet —offers the most salient example. The internet has proven to be a transformative technology and, yet, the stock market ’s initial reaction was clearly overly exuberant.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

The 2023-24 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 13, 2023 - This increases the size of the budget  problem. $800   Million in Other Differences. Across the rest of the budget, our estimates of baseline spending —for example, for caseload growth, federal reimbursements, and statutory cost increases —and constitutional requirements —for example, for infrastructure and deposits into reserves —differ , on net, by $800  million.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4662

The 2023-24 Budget: Multiyear Assessment

Feb 15, 2023 - Three of those —the recession in the early 1990s, the dot ‑com bust in the early 2000s, and the Great Recession —resulted in large revenue shortfalls and ensuing multiyear deficits, even for some years after each recession ended.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4687

The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook [Publication Details]

Nov 19, 2025 - Each year, our office publishes the Fiscal Outlook in anticipation of the upcoming budget season. This report gives the Legislature our independent estimates and analysis of the state’s General Fund budget condition with the goal of helping lawmakers prepare for the 2026-27 budget process.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Detail/5091

The 2026-27 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 12, 2026 - In our November Fiscal Outlook report, we estimated that the state faced an $18  billion budget problem. This budget problem was larger than the one anticipated by the administration in June, despite strong trends in income tax collections in the intervening months.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5101

Rethinking California's Reserve Policy

Apr 10, 2025 - In March of 2004, on the heels of the dot ‑com bust, voters passed Proposition  58, which created the Budget Stabilization Account (BSA). In the 2006 ‑07 budget, the Legislature deposited $472  million into the BSA and in 2007 ‑08 deposited $1.5  billion.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5028

The 2023-24 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 13, 2023 - On January 10, 2023, Governor Newsom presented his proposed state budget to the Legislature. In this report, we provide a brief summary of the proposed budget based on our initial review. In the coming weeks, we will analyze the plan in more detail and release several additional budget analyses.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4662/2

The 2023-24 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 13, 2023 - On January 10, 2023, Governor Newsom presented his proposed state budget to the Legislature. In this report, we provide a brief summary of the proposed budget based on our initial review. In the coming weeks, we will analyze the plan in more detail and release several additional budget analyses.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4662/1