The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - This report gives the Legislature our independent estimates and analysis of the state ’s General Fund budget condition with the goal of helping lawmakers prepare for the 2026 ‑27 budget process. As always, our Fiscal Outlook evaluates the budget ’s condition based on current law and policy both at the state and federal level.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

The 2026-27 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 12, 2026 - That said, recent budgets have set the SFEU bet ween $3.5  billion and $4.5  billion, so the Governor ’s budget proposal to set the balance to $4.5  billion is generally in line with recent policy.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5101

Strong Tax Collections Belie California's Challenging Fiscal Outlook

Apr 26, 2022 - History suggests that this is a daunting task, however, and at least raises the odds of a recession. Financial markets, and the yield curve for U.S. Treasury notes in particular, recently have signaled as much.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4590

COVID-19 and California’s Evolving Fiscal Outlook

Mar 18, 2020 - A preliminary analysis conducted by our office indicates a very high likelihood that tax revenues from capital gains income will be several billion dollars lower than what the Governor ’s budget assumed.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4203

The 2023-24 Budget: Multiyear Assessment

Feb 15, 2023 - (Our Fiscal Outlook revenues are our best estimate of the revenue assumption that has even odds of being too high or too low.) We then look at where in this range of potential revenue outcomes the Governor ’s proposed level of spending falls.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4687

Whether or Not to Tap Reserves to Solve Estimated Budget Problem Emerges as Key Fiscal Decision Facing California’s Legislature

Apr 19, 2023 - The Fed ’s continued efforts to lower inflation by raising the Fed funds rate has the effect of cooling the economy, which inherently raises the odds of a recession. As a potential precipitating factor to recession, tighter monetary policy can also reveal financial system vulnerabilities.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4762

The 2026-27 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget [Publication Details]

Jan 12, 2026 - On January 9, 2026, Governor Newsom’s administration presented its proposed state budget to the California Legislature. In this report, we provide a high-level summary and our initial analysis of the Governor’s budget based on our preliminary review (as of January 10). Assembly Budget Handout (PDF) Senate Budget and Fiscal Review Handout (PDF)
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Detail/5101

The 2025-26 Budget: Multiyear Budget Outlook

May 24, 2025 - The 2025-26 Budget: Multiyear Budget Outlook Multiyear Budget Outlook Summary This analysis presents our assessment of the budget ’s condition under our revenue forecast and spending estimates of the Governor ’s May Revision spending proposals.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5052

The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook [Publication Details]

Nov 19, 2025 - Each year, our office publishes the Fiscal Outlook in anticipation of the upcoming budget season. This report gives the Legislature our independent estimates and analysis of the state’s General Fund budget condition with the goal of helping lawmakers prepare for the 2026-27 budget process.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Detail/5091

California's Legislative Analyst's Office and the Value of Independence

Nov 15, 2024 - Reaffirming the LAO ’s Independent Mandate The LAO was established in 1941 because the Legislature sought an independent source of information and analysis —one directly accountable to it and serving as a fiscal watchdog on its behalf.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4938