California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - To do this, we add a stock market indicator to our forecast models alongside other the economic variables. The added risk variable weighs on the range of revenue outcomes that we view as most plausible.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? [EconTax Blog]

Mar 9, 2026 - By most measures, the global financial crisis was more severe than the dot-com crash. The state 's unemployment rate, for example, peaked at 7 percent following the dot-com crash but reached nearly double that during the financial crisis and remained elevated for much longer.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/article/Detail/852

How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? [EconTax Blog]

Mar 9, 2026 - By most measures, the global financial crisis was more severe than the dot-com crash. The state 's unemployment rate, for example, peaked at 7 percent following the dot-com crash but reached nearly double that during the financial crisis and remained elevated for much longer.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/852

Home Price Update: October 2021 [EconTax Blog]

Nov 18, 2021 - Previous recessions have had disparate effects on home prices: they were largely unaffected by the collapse of the dot-com bubble in 2001, while in the late 2000s the collapse of the housing bubble was the single biggest factor that led to the financial crisis.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/714

Home Prices Update: September 2021 [EconTax Blog]

Oct 20, 2021 - Previous recessions have had disparate effects on home prices: they were largely unaffected by the collapse of the dot-com bubble in 2001, while in the late 2000s the collapse of the housing bubble was the single biggest factor that led to the financial crisis.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/706

^[PDF] UPDATE MAY 1997

This com- pares with a budget estimate of only about a 1 percent decline in the cur- rent year. Furthermore, the number of eligibles in most other Medi-Cal categories is growing more slowly than the budget had estimated.
https://lao.ca.gov/1997/cal_update/may_97_calupdate.pdf

^[PDF] COMMUNITY EDUCATION OF CHILDREN RESIDING IN STATE HOSPITALS

Our review indicates that some children, however, are receiving services in inappropriate settings. On December 31, 1981, for example, 51 state hospital residents whose individualized education programs indicated that they coul d benefit from special education services provided in a com- munity program off hospital grounds were being educated on hospital grounds.
https://lao.ca.gov/reports/1983/02_community_education_of_children_residing_in_state_hospitals.pdf

Oversight of certain public benefit artificial intelligence (AI) companies. [Ballot]

Jan 20, 2026 - The measure would have the following major fiscal effects: Increased state costs that would likely be in the tens of millions of dollars annually to establish and operate a new regulatory commission overseeing certain public benefit AI com panies.
https://lao.ca.gov/BallotAnalysis/Initiative/2025-033

^[PDF] CalWORKs Program Overview Hearing

CalWORKs Program Overview Hearing Moving Toward Self-Sufficiency: Allowable Activities LAO 60 YEARS OF SERVICE L E G I S L A T I V E A N A L Y S T ’ S O F F I C E March 9, 2005 3 " One-Parent Family: A family is eligible for the one-parent com- ponent of the program if it includes a child who is financially needy due to the death, incapacity, or continued absence of one or both
https://lao.ca.gov/handouts/socservices/2005/CalWORKs_program_030905.pdf

California New Car Registrations: February 2026 [EconTax Blog]

Apr 7, 2026 - California New Car Registrations: February 2026 [EconTax Blog] California New Car Registrations: February 2026 April 7, 2026 Seth Kerstein As discussed in an earlier post , new car purchases can be a useful, timely economic indicator.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/855