California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - To do this, we add a stock market indicator to our forecast models alongside other the economic variables. The added risk variable weighs on the range of revenue outcomes that we view as most plausible.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? [EconTax Blog]

Mar 9, 2026 - By most measures, the global financial crisis was more severe than the dot-com crash. The state 's unemployment rate, for example, peaked at 7 percent following the dot-com crash but reached nearly double that during the financial crisis and remained elevated for much longer.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/article/Detail/852

How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? [EconTax Blog]

Mar 9, 2026 - By most measures, the global financial crisis was more severe than the dot-com crash. The state 's unemployment rate, for example, peaked at 7 percent following the dot-com crash but reached nearly double that during the financial crisis and remained elevated for much longer.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/852

Home Price Update: October 2021 [EconTax Blog]

Nov 18, 2021 - Previous recessions have had disparate effects on home prices: they were largely unaffected by the collapse of the dot-com bubble in 2001, while in the late 2000s the collapse of the housing bubble was the single biggest factor that led to the financial crisis.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/714

Home Prices Update: September 2021 [EconTax Blog]

Oct 20, 2021 - Previous recessions have had disparate effects on home prices: they were largely unaffected by the collapse of the dot-com bubble in 2001, while in the late 2000s the collapse of the housing bubble was the single biggest factor that led to the financial crisis.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/706

California New Car Registrations: December 2025 [EconTax Blog]

Feb 9, 2026 - For example, registrations in December 2025 were 13 percent lower than in December 2019.  
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/article/Detail/848

California New Car Registrations: December 2025 [EconTax Blog]

Feb 9, 2026 - For example, registrations in December 2025 were 13 percent lower than in December 2019.  
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/848

California New Car Registrations: November 2025 [EconTax Blog]

Jan 6, 2026 - For example, registrations in November 2025 were 8 percent lower than in November 2019.  
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/846

California New Car Registrations: November 2025 [EconTax Blog]

Jan 6, 2026 - For example, registrations in November 2025 were 8 percent lower than in November 2019.  
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/article/Detail/846

California New Car Registrations: October 2025 [EconTax Blog]

Dec 3, 2025 - For example, registrations in October 2025 were 6 percent lower than in October 2019.  
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/845