The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - This Time Might Be Different, but It Is Not Safe to Bet on It. With so much enthusiasm surrounding AI, it now appears time to take seriously the notion that the stock market has become overheated. History suggests that the stock market is prone to overreact to major technological advances, even if the technology itself turns out to be revolutionary.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

The 2026-27 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 12, 2026 - That said, recent budgets have set the SFEU bet ween $3.5  billion and $4.5  billion, so the Governor ’s budget proposal to set the balance to $4.5  billion is generally in line with recent policy.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5101

The 2026-27 Budget: How to Use One-Time Revenue Improvements

Feb 20, 2026 - Any additional resources that materialize at that time should be viewed as a one-time windfall. Despite Revenue Strength, Budget Relies on Reserves and Borrowing. This revenue upgrade comes in addition to already strong revenue growth forecasted in the Governor ’s budget.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5133

The 2026-27 Budget: How to Use One-Time Revenue Improvements [Publication Details]

Feb 20, 2026 - The 2026-27 Budget: How to Use One-Time Revenue Improvements [Publication Details] Translate Our Website This Google ™ translation feature provided on the Legislative Analyst's Office (LAO) website is for informational purposes only.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Detail/5133

California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - Moreover, investors have been aggressive in taking on high levels of margin debt (borrowing to buy stocks), which has reached approximately three times the historical norm. These and other indicators are at levels previously only seen at times when the market was approaching a peak before entering a period of retrenchment.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

The 2025-26 Budget: Overview of the Spending Plan

Oct 16, 2025 - A budget problem is inherently a point ‑in ‑time estimate that reflects information available at the time of development, forecasts of future revenues and spending, and assumptions about which cost changes reflect current law and policy (referred to as “baseline changes ”).
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5079

Rethinking California's Reserve Policy

Apr 10, 2025 - Instead, core services will change over time as the state responds to changes in revenues by expanding or contracting the size of government. While a portion of temporary surges in revenue will be allocated to one ‑time spending, after a period of time, the Legislature will begin to expand service levels in response to sustained revenue growth.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5028

The 2025-26 Budget: Initial Comments on the Governor's May Revision

May 17, 2025 - A budget problem is inherently a point ‑in ‑time estimate that reflects information available at the time of development, forecasts of future revenues and spending, and assumptions about the extent to which changes in costs are due to current policy (that is, whether or not they are “baseline changes ”).
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5044

The 2025-26 Budget: Undertaking Fiscal Oversight

Feb 24, 2025 - Although the Legislature solved sizeable deficits over the past few years, totaling over $80  billion, those solutions largely only impacted one-time and temporary programs supported by the one-time, post-pandemic revenue surge.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4983

Rethinking California's Reserve Policy [Publication Details]

Apr 10, 2025 - Rethinking California's Reserve Policy [Publication Details] HTML Description: Reserves allow the state to ensure stable funding for its services over time, even when revenue fluctuates unpredictably.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Detail/5028