The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook Executive Summary Not Safe to Bet Artificial Intelligence ( AI) Fueled Exuberance Is Sustainable. Both the California and U.S. economies currently face significant headwinds.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

The 2026-27 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 12, 2026 - That said, recent budgets have set the SFEU bet ween $3.5  billion and $4.5  billion, so the Governor ’s budget proposal to set the balance to $4.5  billion is generally in line with recent policy.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5101

New Inflation Poses Not So New Budget Risk

Dec 15, 2022 - History suggests that it is difficult for the Fed to weaken demand enough to reduce inflation but not so much as to tip the economy into a recession. This reflects that the Fed ’s tools for implementing changes in monetary policy are blunt and operate with a considerable lag, making attempts at fine-tuning very challenging.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4653

An Extraordinary Moment in California's Fiscal History

Apr 11, 2019 - Lower gross domestic product (GDP) growth rates imply less distance to outright contraction and raise the risk that unforeseen events could more easily tip the economy into a downturn. California ’s practice in recent years of increasing its budget reserves is prudent and akin to taking out an insurance policy against the inevitable revenue shortfalls that will accompany the next recession.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4003