California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - Given that this deficit is estimated to range from $20  billion to $35  billion in the years ahead, addressing it gradually, rather than all at once, reduces fiscal disruption and more readily provides for legislative input and flexibility.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? [EconTax Blog]

Mar 9, 2026 - By most measures, the global financial crisis was more severe than the dot-com crash. The state 's unemployment rate, for example, peaked at 7 percent following the dot-com crash but reached nearly double that during the financial crisis and remained elevated for much longer.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/article/Detail/852

How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? [EconTax Blog]

Mar 9, 2026 - By most measures, the global financial crisis was more severe than the dot-com crash. The state 's unemployment rate, for example, peaked at 7 percent following the dot-com crash but reached nearly double that during the financial crisis and remained elevated for much longer.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/852

Oversight of certain public benefit artificial intelligence (AI) companies. [Ballot]

Jan 20, 2026 - The measure would have the following major fiscal effects: Increased state costs that would likely be in the tens of millions of dollars annually to establish and operate a new regulatory commission overseeing certain public benefit AI com panies.
https://lao.ca.gov/BallotAnalysis/Initiative/2025-033

The 2026-27 Budget: Judicial Branch

Feb 11, 2026 - The judicial branch currently manages around 430 facilities across all 58 counties. Its facility program is responsible for various activities including maintaining these facilities, managing leases, and constructing new courthouses to replace outdated facilities.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5113

The 2026-27 Budget: California State University

Feb 24, 2026 - The total marginal cost (state and student shares combined) of increasing resident undergraduate enrollment by 1  percent in 2026 ‑27 is $58  million. Provide more funding for student financial aid. Specifically, CSU plans to designate $67  million for this purpose.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5142

The 2026-27 Budget: Medi-Cal Analysis

Mar 2, 2026 - Rather, the lower revenues are due to the interaction of H.R.  1 ’s new proportionality rules with Proposition  35 ’s limit on taxing commercial enrollment. As we noted in our recent report Considering Medi‑Cal in the Midst of the Changing Fiscal and Policy Landscape , the state likely could amend Proposition 35 with a three‑fourths vote in each house, so long as the changes are consistent with the purpose and intent of the measure.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5146

The 2026-27 Budget: Community College Facilities

Mar 17, 2026 - Third, although the scoring system grants more points to projects with higher local contributions, half of the projects selected this year have relatively low local contributions (less than 35  percent).
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5159

Middle Class Scholarship Program [EdBudget]

Feb 3, 2026 - Projections for 2026-27 assume a 5 percent increase in recipients and, as proposed by the administration, a 50 percent decrease in award coverage (from 35 percent award coverage in 2025-26 to 17.5 percent coverage in 2026-27).
https://lao.ca.gov/Education/EdBudget/Details/1056

The 2026-27 Budget: In-Home Supportive Services

Mar 18, 2026 - Historically, counties paid 35  percent of the nonfederal share of IHSS service costs and 30  percent of the nonfederal share of IHSS administrative costs. In the early 2010s, this share of cost model was replaced with an IHSS MOE.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5166